Big Game, Bigger Side Bets
Forget about who will win the Super Bowl. What about the coin flip?
The commercials that the agency or the network didn't want you to see. Read More
Meet the most calculating marketing-and-finance major ever to play quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks.
Read More
Why Anthony Noto is leaving Goldman Sachs to be the C.F.O. of the National Football League.
Read more
With growth stalled, a multibillion-dollar sports business looks to diversity for a jump start. Read More
Recent Columns
- Requiem for Lightweights
- Dec 5 2008
- Straining for a Rebound
- Oct 31 2008
- Amid the Rust, a Man of Steel
- Oct 17 2008
- Yankees at a Crossroads
- Oct 3 2008
- More Than His Phils
- Sep 19 2008
- Thrown for a Loss
- Sep 5 2008
- Smashing Pumpkins
- Aug 22 2008
- An Olympic Miss
- Aug 8 2008
- Clock Ticks on Manny Moments
- Jul 25 2008
- Buy Me Some Peanuts and Flat, Bland Beer
- Jul 11 2008
- A Great Leap Forward
- Jun 27 2008
- Fighting for Its Life
- Jun 13 2008
- Japanese Idol
- May 30 2008
- Bronx Cheer
- May 16 2008
- Meet the New Boss. Same as the Old Boss?
- May 2 2008
When it comes to guts, no professional gambler can match Bill Krackomberger. At six feet and 369 pounds, he is roughly square. "I don't drink, smoke, or do drugs," says the 39-year-old New Jersey resident. "But I do enjoy eating."
Krackman, as the Ralph Kramden of high rollers is known, is at his gutsiest before the Super Bowl. He bets heavily—not so much on the game as on dozens of exotic side bets called proposition wagers or props.
"I put about 20 times more cash on props than I do on who the winner will be," says Krackman, who figures to ante up about $5,000 on the outcome of Super Bowl XXXXII. You do the math.
In Nevada, no betting event is bigger than the Super Bowl. Some $200 million is expected to be parlayed this year, and roughtly half of that will be on props. (Krackman is taking the New York Giants, a two-touchdown long shot over the New England Patriots, at 14½-to-1.)
As always, Krackman will place his Vegas bets at the Golden Nugget, though he says the best action will be found at the Las Vegas Hilton. "The Imperial Palace used to be the center of Super Bowl props," he says. "But this year the casino's prop bookmaker moved to the Hilton. He'll have more than a thousand different kinds posted by the opening kickoff."
The kickoff usually gets more than its fair share of propositions. Krackman has already wagered on two props, both involving the pregame coin toss: whether heads or tails will be called, and how the coin will land.
Krackman is fairly certain that heads will be called. "I have it on good authority that heads has been picked in 32 of the last 35 Super Bowls," he explains. "Heads sounds more positive than tails, like going with the plus rather than the minus on a battery. And heads is more macho, more manly." Players can get their tails whipped, but not their heads.
As for the result of the flip, Krackman bets tails every year. "Look closely at the head on the commemorative coins used by the officials and you'll see it's slightly puffed up," he says. Aerodynamically, he figures, the coin is just the tiniest bit top-heavy. To test his theory, Krackman once flipped a commemorative coin 100 times. By his count, 55 percent of those flips came up tails.
Among Krackman's favorite novelty bets include how long Billy Joel would take to sing "The Star-Spangled Banner" in 2007 (the "over and under" was at one minute and 42 seconds); who would score more points that day, the Colts or LeBron James, whose Cleveland Cavaliers were playing the Detroit Pistons; what color Gatorade would douse the winning coach in 2004 (yellow had even odds; orange, 30-to-1); whether a player would moon the crowd; and in 2006, the odds that Martians would arrive to see the game (15,000-to-1).
Cross-sport props won't be posted until next week, and if the past is a guide, they should be wildly diverse. Krackman's Cross-Sports Prop Hall of Fame features:
Will Darrell Jackson have more receptions than Tiger Woods has birdies during the fourth round of the 2006 Dubai Desert Classic?
Will the Steelers (at +16) have more points than France versus Scotland in the Six Nations Championship Rugby Union match?
Krackman's 2008 "must bet" list includes:
Will either team score three times in a row?
"Sounds like it's really hard to do," Krackman says, "but it happens almost every game, especially with an offensive powerhouse like New England. I like this prop at up to 2-to-1. True odds are something like 2.7-to-1."
Will the first turnover be a fumble or an interception?
"I bet interception. Eli Manning and Tom Brady throw much more than they hand off. During the regular season, interception won out 60 percent of the time."
Will either team score in the final two minutes of the second quarter?
"History says yes. This happened at 75 percent of Patriots games this year."
Who will be named M.V.P.?
"In the first 41 Super Bowls, a defensive player has been M.V.P. only once. The award is almost always given to a quarterback or a running back. I took Brady at 2-to-1 odds, and halved that bet to take Manning at 8-to-1."
In which quarter will most of the points be scored?
"My money is on the third, at 3-to-1, and the fourth, at 3.8-to-1. With these teams, the game is likely to break open in the second half, which is what happened when they met in the regular season."
Which team will score last?
"I think the Giants, at 1.7-to-1. Chances are they'll be behind by 10 points or more. That suggests the Patriots will be in the prevent defense."
Which team will get the initial first down?
"I took New York at 1.1-to-1. After all, the odds are fifty-fifty that either team will win the coin toss and get first possession."
Which team will nail the first coffin-corner punt?
"The Giants, without question. Jeff Feagles has been a pro since 1988. He's masterful at this kind of kick. Compared to him, New England's punter is just a rookie."
Which team will be the first to be penalized for pass interference?
"New York, simply because the New England offense will probably be on the field more, and Brady will be throwing to his wideouts more."
Will either team score on a safety?
"No. In 41 years, this has never happened. A safe bet is 10-to-1. I got 7-to-1."
By the way, last year the player who called the coin toss picked tails. Krackman offers a small shrug. "You're right—I don't always win," he concedes. "To make a living at this, I just have to win 52½ percent of the time."
Krackman, as the Ralph Kramden of high rollers is known, is at his gutsiest before the Super Bowl. He bets heavily—not so much on the game as on dozens of exotic side bets called proposition wagers or props.
"I put about 20 times more cash on props than I do on who the winner will be," says Krackman, who figures to ante up about $5,000 on the outcome of Super Bowl XXXXII. You do the math.
In Nevada, no betting event is bigger than the Super Bowl. Some $200 million is expected to be parlayed this year, and roughtly half of that will be on props. (Krackman is taking the New York Giants, a two-touchdown long shot over the New England Patriots, at 14½-to-1.)
As always, Krackman will place his Vegas bets at the Golden Nugget, though he says the best action will be found at the Las Vegas Hilton. "The Imperial Palace used to be the center of Super Bowl props," he says. "But this year the casino's prop bookmaker moved to the Hilton. He'll have more than a thousand different kinds posted by the opening kickoff."
The kickoff usually gets more than its fair share of propositions. Krackman has already wagered on two props, both involving the pregame coin toss: whether heads or tails will be called, and how the coin will land.
Krackman is fairly certain that heads will be called. "I have it on good authority that heads has been picked in 32 of the last 35 Super Bowls," he explains. "Heads sounds more positive than tails, like going with the plus rather than the minus on a battery. And heads is more macho, more manly." Players can get their tails whipped, but not their heads.
As for the result of the flip, Krackman bets tails every year. "Look closely at the head on the commemorative coins used by the officials and you'll see it's slightly puffed up," he says. Aerodynamically, he figures, the coin is just the tiniest bit top-heavy. To test his theory, Krackman once flipped a commemorative coin 100 times. By his count, 55 percent of those flips came up tails.
Among Krackman's favorite novelty bets include how long Billy Joel would take to sing "The Star-Spangled Banner" in 2007 (the "over and under" was at one minute and 42 seconds); who would score more points that day, the Colts or LeBron James, whose Cleveland Cavaliers were playing the Detroit Pistons; what color Gatorade would douse the winning coach in 2004 (yellow had even odds; orange, 30-to-1); whether a player would moon the crowd; and in 2006, the odds that Martians would arrive to see the game (15,000-to-1).
Cross-sport props won't be posted until next week, and if the past is a guide, they should be wildly diverse. Krackman's Cross-Sports Prop Hall of Fame features:
Will Darrell Jackson have more receptions than Tiger Woods has birdies during the fourth round of the 2006 Dubai Desert Classic?
Will the Steelers (at +16) have more points than France versus Scotland in the Six Nations Championship Rugby Union match?
Krackman's 2008 "must bet" list includes:
Will either team score three times in a row?
"Sounds like it's really hard to do," Krackman says, "but it happens almost every game, especially with an offensive powerhouse like New England. I like this prop at up to 2-to-1. True odds are something like 2.7-to-1."
Will the first turnover be a fumble or an interception?
"I bet interception. Eli Manning and Tom Brady throw much more than they hand off. During the regular season, interception won out 60 percent of the time."
Will either team score in the final two minutes of the second quarter?
"History says yes. This happened at 75 percent of Patriots games this year."
Who will be named M.V.P.?
"In the first 41 Super Bowls, a defensive player has been M.V.P. only once. The award is almost always given to a quarterback or a running back. I took Brady at 2-to-1 odds, and halved that bet to take Manning at 8-to-1."
In which quarter will most of the points be scored?
"My money is on the third, at 3-to-1, and the fourth, at 3.8-to-1. With these teams, the game is likely to break open in the second half, which is what happened when they met in the regular season."
Which team will score last?
"I think the Giants, at 1.7-to-1. Chances are they'll be behind by 10 points or more. That suggests the Patriots will be in the prevent defense."
Which team will get the initial first down?
"I took New York at 1.1-to-1. After all, the odds are fifty-fifty that either team will win the coin toss and get first possession."
Which team will nail the first coffin-corner punt?
"The Giants, without question. Jeff Feagles has been a pro since 1988. He's masterful at this kind of kick. Compared to him, New England's punter is just a rookie."
Which team will be the first to be penalized for pass interference?
"New York, simply because the New England offense will probably be on the field more, and Brady will be throwing to his wideouts more."
Will either team score on a safety?
"No. In 41 years, this has never happened. A safe bet is 10-to-1. I got 7-to-1."
By the way, last year the player who called the coin toss picked tails. Krackman offers a small shrug. "You're right—I don't always win," he concedes. "To make a living at this, I just have to win 52½ percent of the time."






