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Deal, or No Deal?

If you think buying travel is tricky when prices are high, you have no idea how complicated life on the road can be when prices are falling.

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I spend an inordinate amount of time tracking airfares and hotel rates and say this without fear of contradiction: This is the best time in a decade to get a deal. Long haul or short, budget digs or palatial stays, leisure and business travel prices have reached comparative, historic lows.

In other words, time to watch your back. If you think buying travel is tricky when prices are high, you have no idea how complicated life on the road can be when prices are falling. The travel industry doesn't lower prices graciously or transparently. There are always trapdoors, tricks, and an endless parade of extras that can needlessly inflate your fares and room rates.

Consider what follows a cheat sheet to avoid getting tricked in the next few weeks and months. We'll revisit this topic as frequently as necessary to keep you abreast of this most extraordinary time in travel buying.

Buy Now, Check Later
Several carriers tried to raise fares over the weekend, their second failed attempt in as many weekends. (Airlines usually try to raise prices on weekends, when bookings are light, so they can rescind the increases by Monday morning if the lemming-like industry doesn't act in lockstep.) You can look at the attempted price hikes as delusional or an indication that at least some carriers see glimmers of hope for a summer traffic bump. Either way, chances are that we've reached a temporary floor in airfares, so now would be a good time to lock in summer flights.

With the requisite 60-day advance purchase and Saturday-night stay requirement, business-class fares to Europe are now as low as $1,798 roundtrip before taxes. That's just a few hundred dollars more than you'll pay for a coach seat on shorter notice later this year. Business-class fares to Latin America are falling too. Up-front fares to Asia remain high considering a rapid decline in traffic, but coach prices across the Pacific are lower than across the Atlantic on a fare-per-mile basis. And you can't complain much about domestic fares: We've already seen several $49-to-$99 fare wars. In fact, Virgin America, the struggling startup, has cut some transcontinental fares to as low as $79 one-way this spring.

Although I recommend you buy now, you should always double-check prices again before you travel. There are automated fare-watch programs—Yapta is a current favorite of price-obsessive fliers—but you can also do it yourself a few weeks before you fly. If you find a substantially lower fare, call the airline and get a voucher for the price difference, minus an admittedly hefty ticket-rewrite fee.

Beware Bogus BoGos
The low price of premium-class tickets has mooted the classic "buy one, get one" (BoGo) promotion, but that hasn't stopped carriers from trotting out the gimmick in hopes you're not paying attention. Earlier this year, for example, South African Airways offered one for coach travel, but the required "buy one" price was just $100 less than if you had purchased two tickets separately. Qantas ran a two-for-one sale on business-class seats last week, but its buy-one price was literally twice as much as competitors were charging for a single seat. Also rendered virtually useless in the current market: the much-heralded International Airline Program available with certain American Express cards. It will give you a free companion first- or business-class ticket when you buy one—but only if your purchase is at full fare, a price that is now often four or five times higher than the current sale rates freely available in the marketplace.

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