2009 Business Travel Predicitions

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Car Rentals: Older Cars, Less Service

No one pays much attention to car rentals until things turn bad—and things are bad. One small player, Advantage Rent A Car, has tumbled into bankruptcy and closed many of its rental stations. Standard & Poor's says Dollar Thrifty may be the next into Chapter 11. The Avis Budget Group had to scramble to secure financing for a fleet update. Enterprise, until recently the industry's highest flier, is laying off employees for the first time in its 50-year history. What's it mean for us in 2009? More rentals with high mileage, lots of road wear and obvious cosmetic damage. (Don't be shocked if you get a 2-year-old clunker with 20,000 miles or more.) Fewer employees to check us in when we return cars. (Most rental firms are emulating Enterprise.) And more under-the-radar cash grabs. (Watch for rising daily rates for insurance and damage waivers and higher prices for vehicle-refueling service.)

Security: They'll Be Watching You

More than seven years after 9/11, the government still hasn't come up with a plan that sanely balances airline security and our privacy rights. Unfortunately, 2009 will bring even more infringement on our privacy rights. Sometime during the year, the Transportation Security Agency will take on the so-called "watch list" functions now performed by the airlines. And that means if you don't give your full name and birth date when you make an airline reservation, you'll be barred from boarding the aircraft. "You have to give this information," outgoing T.S.A. administrator Kip Hawley says bluntly. He claims the added data will "dramatically reduce" the number of travelers pulled aside for additional security screening because their name somehow resembles the name of a terrorist on the government's blacklist. One potential silver lining: Hawley claims the T.S.A. may drop its 3-ounce rule for liquids in carry-on bags during 2009. Of course, he's leaving office in a few weeks, so he's speculating on decisions he won't control.

The Fine Print…

One of the world's least competitive air-travel markets, the routes between the mainland United States and Australia, will get more competition in 2009. The cozy Qantas-United Airlines duopoly will end and both Delta Air Lines and V Australia, a carrier that's part of Richard Branson's air empire, will launch new flights between Sydney and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, British Airways will pioneer a new route between New York and London in 2009. Beginning in the fall, it will fly an all-business-class Airbus A318 between New York's John F. Kennedy International and London's City Airport, just a few miles from Canary Wharf. But operational conditions at City Airport are so challenging that the London-New York flight will make an intermediate fueling stop in Ireland.

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