Summer Travel Forecast

Image: Grant Faint

1 of 2 NEXT

Here is some good, old-fashioned irrational exuberance: I don't think travel this summer will be as arduous or as infuriating as it was last year.

My comrades in the commentary class disagree, of course. They rightfully point out the dark clouds casting the proverbial pall over the summer travel outlook: Airfares are skyrocketing. Fees for everything from ticket changes to checking bags are jumping. Airports and aircraft are crowded, flights are delayed or canceled, and service levels have deteriorated. Hotel rates are rising. Gas prices are headed to the moon, and the nation's automotive infrastructure is crumbling. And the dollar is in the tank overseas, so we can't even escape by going Over There.

But your curmudgeonly companion here in Seat 2B somehow sees silver linings this summer. A batch of airlines has gone out of business recently, so that should mean fewer flights crowding runways—and fewer delays. The government has imposed caps on flight schedules at the New York airports, and that will mitigate some of the problems at the national aeronautical choke point. The orgy of price hikes imposed by the airlines this year has probably passed the tipping point. Such a rapid runup is likely to depress demand; I think the airlines will panic and start discounting to get butts in seats. Hotels have pushed up prices a bit too fast also; they're already beginning to bargain to keep heads on beds. Even the weak dollar has shown some tentative signs of a revival in the last week, so international-travel costs this summer aren't likely to be as high as we were predicting even a month ago.

A word to the wary, however: Even irrational exuberance has its limits. This will be a challenging summer, and you'll need some strategies and tactics for maximizing your opportunities. Allow me to be your tour guide.

Watch for Fast Fare Sales

This won't be a season filled with big breaks broadcast via huge newspaper ads. The airlines will probably rely on brief sales that are announced only through select distribution channels. So if you're looking for a sale to a particular destination, sign up for the fare-watcher features from travel agencies such as Orbitz.com or Travelocity.com. Another good choice: The hyperactive alert system from FareCompare.com, which allows you to choose the routes, dates, airlines, and class of service you want to monitor.

Break the Hotel Chain

Hotel-rate rises have been fueled by our own reliance on the frequent-guest programs of the major worldwide hotel "families." We often don't look past the chains when we're seeking a hotel bargain—and they price accordingly. The solution? Check an independent site such as Quikbook.com. It offers discount rates from thousands of independent properties around the nation. Independents also offer another benefit: diversity. Unlike chain properties, each offers its own quirks and charm.

1 of 2 NEXT