Hops Malt And Beer Prices

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So the total costs of hops and malt for a case of beer at the new, apocalyptic, end-of-the-beer-world-as-we-know-it prices? Less than a buck and a half. Most brewers aren’t even paying that, thanks to locked-in contracts that are protecting them—for now—from the worst of the increases. Last year at this time, for instance, the cost would have been more like 50 cents. The upshot is a dollar-per-case increase from brewers who failed to plan ahead; you can bet none of the major brewers falls in that category. By the time it gets through the system, it will be marked up to an increase of maybe $2 to $2.50 a case on the shelf.

Most of the brewers who will be taking that hit are craft brewers who are selling beer at more than $25 a case already, some at well over that price. A couple bucks’ increase is a pretty small bump at that level. The demand for the higher-end craft beers and imported beers has also been fairly independent of price; I haven’t talked to a brewer in almost 10 years who said sales had been lost because of price increases.

The upshot of higher malt and hops prices, then, is slightly higher beer prices from small brewers, particularly at really small operations, like brewpubs. There will also probably be some formulation changes as brewers adjust to what hops they can and can’t get, and you may not even notice.

But the silver lining to the gray cloud of concern is how small brewers react to a tight hops market. I’m looking forward to the innovations and experimentation it will bring. For that matter, drinking some dark milds and helles wouldn’t be bad either.

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