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Deficit, Schmeficit

The big banks cowed Bill Clinton into obsessing over the deficit. But our next president will need to spend, spend, spend.

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Come January 20, there will be a new occupant in the White House. The next president will face some of the same challenges that confronted Bill Clinton when he assumed office 16 years earlier, including a weak economy and a large deficit. Even the overly optimistic Bush administration predicts a deficit of $410 billion for the fiscal year ending September 30, more than the peak Bush I deficit of $290 billion.

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Like President Clinton, the incoming president will be pressured to placate Wall Street by bringing the deficit down quickly. Wall Street has a mortal fear of deficits, either as a harbinger of inflation—which drives interest rates up and bond prices down—or tax increases.

There are some critical differences between then and now that should dissuade our next chief executive from following the Clinton playbook. This is no time to return to Rubinomics, the single-minded focus on deficit reduction that was the hallmark of the Clinton years. Such an approach most likely wouldn’t work, and it wouldn’t stand up to America’s pressing needs.

With the national debt $3.5 trillion higher than when Clinton took office (while its ratio to the gross domestic product has risen from 60 to 67 percent), the need to focus again on deficit reduction might seem even greater than before. Financial markets will no doubt demand fiscal prudence above all else. But deficits by themselves do not determine a nation’s wealth or health. If a country borrows to finance a consumption binge—or a failed war—it will be worse off. But borrowing to finance high-return research and development or infrastructure improvements will raise incomes by more than enough to offset the increased interest payments.

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