Apple's Usual Tricks

Sam Gustin says: Don't sweat Apple's "disappointing" guidance numbers; it's just Steve Jobs & Co. up to their usual tricks.

"This is typical conservative Apple guidance," said Chuck Jones, a money manager at Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management, which has nearly $17 billion under management, including Apple shares. "The company tends to downplay expectations."

In a down market, it wouldn't hurt to rein in expectations and then exceed them--as Apple has in each of the last seven quarters, beating Wall Street estimates each time, including today.

Still, company shares were trading nearly 10 percent lower after hours on the company's reduced revenue forecast for the next quarter. Jones thinks it's a mistake to sell shares just because the company lowered its guidance, though he won't go so far as to assume that Apple "bakes in" a 15 or 20 percent premium into its forecasts. Perhaps investors were merely spooked by a story today in the New York Post suggesting that Jobs' health was on the wane.

Jones remains upbeat. "The Mac business is still on a tear, and the iPod has done much better than anyone was expecting," he says.

Meanwhile, the new iPhone 3G, which has been a mega-hit, will also help the company moving forward, although it could be several quarters before we begin to see that effect.

"I think everybody -- including Apple -- has been surprised by the demand for the iPhone," says Michael Obuchowski, a portfolio manager at New York-based Altanes Investments, which owns Apple.