Can W Succeed Even Though W Failed?

W., the man -- a.k.a. George W. Bush -- sees the world in black and white.

W. the movie, Oliver Stone's two-hour-plus portrait of the 43rd president of the United States, paints things more in shades of gray.

As for the movie's chances of box office success? If the muted reception from the crowd at the film's premiere at Manhattan's Ziegfeld Theater on Tuesday is any indication, W., which opens this Friday in theaters nationwide, will make it into the black -- but barely.

The movie cost a reported $30 million to make, a modest sum in an era of $100 million-dollar films. Partygoers, including entertainment lawyers and Hollywood producers, pegged the potential opening weekend box office take at about $10 million. That's a number that David Poland, the editor of several influential movie-industry blogs, calls "reasonable."

After factoring in DVD sales and potential overseas box office sales, Poland says the movie will break even, but not become a cash cow. "Lions Gate is trying to sell the idea that it's this over the top comedy, a la Fahrenheit 9/11," Poland adds, referring to the distributor, Lions Gate Entertainment. "It's not that movie."

In fact, the laughs were few and far between at the premiere, where despite a huge crowd outside, there were several empty seats. Anti-Bush sentiment remained high: as the movie's title appeared on the screen at the beginning, several audience members hissed.

But when Josh Brolin, as Bush, intoned malapropisms like "is our children learning?" and "misunderestimated," there was approving but not raucous laughter -- those punch lines feel old by now.

Applause at the end was sustained, but while some names in the closing credits were met with cheers and whistles, much of the crowd had started filing out before the credits were done rolling.

At the premiere after-party at the Metropolitan Club, at the corner of Fifth Avenue and 60th Street, where a raw bar and passed hors d'oeuvres kept the crowd circulating well past midnight, the chatter was less about the movie and more about the upcoming election.

And, says Poland, that's part of W.'s problem. "We're at the end of the presidency," he says. "The reason why this movie was relevant has dissipated, now that Obama's seen as being ahead" in national polls.

Poland says he expects potential viewers to be more interested in dissecting this week's presidential debate than in seeing a movie about the current president, going into this weekend.

"Two hours and ten minutes about Bush and how he met Laura -- probably not the highest priority," he says.

Then again, Stone's goal has always been to create controversial films, rather than hugely profitable ones. But with Bush just a few months away from the end of his tenure, this particular controversy seemed boring.

by Sophia Banay

Photograph of Josh Brolin as George W. Bush and Toby Jones as Karl Rove courtesy of Lions Gate/Everett Collection