Oscar Odds Lean Toward "No Country", Coens

The Gold Derby web site posted their odds on the two prime Academy Award races late Thursday afternoon, officially starting the serious run-up to those office Oscar pool wins that are always good for about 24 hours of braggadocio.

It's a little sad, perhaps, that informed cynicism about the Academy voters will usually get you that win a lot sooner than wishful thinking or Lord knows, going for pure merit. That said, with the Coen Brothers touted by the site as a prohibitive lock for Best Director at 1-20, and their No Country For Old Men at 1-3, it's hard to say the worthiest picture isn't in the pole position. Yet of the remaining contenders (the aparently surging Michael Clayton at 6-1, There Will Be Blood at 7-1, Juno at 8-1, and Atonement, despite the BAFTA wins for Best Picture and several other categories, at a distant 40-1), only the last named would cause outrage by pulling an upset.

Likewise, who could deny that Paul Thomas Anderson (8-1), even if you're not buying comparisons to Orson Welles and Citizen Kane, is a solid entrant? Julian Schnabel's sleight-of-hand making The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, at 15-1, was in its way as exciting as Anderson's bravura leap and the Coen pair's near-perfection. Tony Gilroy (40-1) is such a deft writer that he almost undercuts his own bid as director--one is unfairly tempted to ask, who couldn't shoot that script, using the expertly understated Clooney, well? And Jason Reitman, at 50-1, didn't ask for all the rabid man-in-the-street acclaim, and similarly doesn't deserve the dismissive pushback that his sweet-mannered little film (with the not-so-little box office , at $110 million) is getting lately.

Regardless of the results, these two categories should be fascinating to watch. If you're at Tom O'Neil's web site via th above link, check out his predictions on the home page for what talent will be at the podium Oscar night. And you could be forgiven for checking out the video of Beyonce' good-naturedly strutting her stuff for the hollering pack of photogs on the Grammy awards red carpet.