Is the Premium Cable Channel "HB-Over"? Hardly.

During TCA this past July, I had lunch with a Showtimer who was telling me that he sincerely believed that his pay-cable channel now had a real shot at taking on HBO. And it wasn't just lip service, spin or schadenfreude. It was clear that the perception was that the once invinsible HBO had become vulnerable after the end of The Sopranos. And its perceived replacement, the misfire that was John From Cincinnati, had all comers sharpening knives.

So it's no surprise that the New York Times is reporting that Home Box Office has been saddled with a new moniker: "HB-Over." Matthew C. Blank, chairman of Showtime, told the NYT that he has "heard that term used for HBO both inside and outside our network." HBO dismisses that remark as a cheap shot from jealous competitors, but it's clear that the pay-TV leader is facing at least a dangerous perception issue. But the consensus of the NYT's piece isn't really that HBO has tumbled from its "pedestal of prestige" but that they fallen back into the rest of the pack when they used to be lightyears ahead. "I wouldn't call them vulnerable," said John Landgraf, president of FX Networks. "What they were was unassailable. And they aren't that anymore."

But this seems to do less with their actual shows (their upcoming slate looks strong...and Flight of the Conchords was renewed for a second season) than other issues. One, the Chris Albrecht/domestic violence snafu in Vegas. Two: following up the mainstream-hit Sopranos with the oblique, experimental John From Cincinnati in that Sunday 9 PM slot. Though HBO wouldn't call that a mistake, they have since shifted its much-improved Big Love into that symbolic position for its last two episodes.

Yes, I have been tough on John From Cincinnati. And even though I wasn't a fan of the show, I'm still an HBO subscriber because they offer the best original programming. Not every show is going to work, but at leat they had the courage to swing for the fences and try something new. The NYT points to other hard data--the channel's continued dominance in Emmy nominations, a subscriber increase this year (according to a survey by Kagan Associates...HBO continues to have twice the reach of Showtime's 14 million plus subscribers). And sure, there's been a perceived arrogance after so many years of success and they're taking some licks for it now. But while this summer seemed like a brief fallow time for the channel, it's hardly "HB-Over." Michael Lombardo, head of the HBO programming group, suggests that the "offerings in the next year should answer all questions about the strength of the channel." From the NYT:

HBO has another season of its widely praised comedy "Curb Your Enthusiasm" about to start, as well as a much-talked-about drama series about sex therapy called "Tell Me You Love Me." Longer term is a lavish "John Adams" miniseries, and a new drama about vampires from Alan Ball, the creator of "Six Feet Under." Among the ideas in development is an Atlantic City casino drama from Martin Scorsese.