A Redstone/Geffen Showdown in the Works?

I had been on vacation for a few days, got back last night, and wasn't surprised at all to hear that people are still talking about Ron Grover's recent piece in Business Week about a possible split between Paramount and DreamWorks. Today, the LA Times' Patrick Goldstein gives his read on the timing of the Business Week article, which he calls "exquisite, especially if you were trying to signal rival studios of your availability."

But Goldstein pulls back the camera even further by suggesting that the DW camp isn't upset with Paramount head Brad Grey--their beef is with Viacom chief Sumner Redstone, whose recent fights and feuds (including the ugly dispute with his daughter Shari over her succession to the throne) can been seen "as a cautionary tale about a sultan who, as he grew old, came to belief himself infallible and has become increasingly fearful of handing over the keys to the kingdom." From Goldstein:

Still, while Grey and Geffen have brokered a peace, Geffen remains incensed with Redstone. As Business Week columnist Ron Grover wrote last week in a juicy column widely suspected to have been sourced by Geffen and other DreamWorks principals, the DreamWorks team could walk away from Paramount as early as fall 2008, taking their name with them. (The studio's library and any projects in development would stay behind.) If Geffen decides to leave, it triggers an opening for Spielberg to leave, which in return triggers a key-man clause allowing DreamWorks production chief Stacey Snider to leave as well.

The column's timing was exquisite, especially if you were trying to signal rival studios of your availability. The DreamWorks camp contends that both Spielberg and Geffen, as producers, have non-exclusive contracts with Paramount, allowing them to produce movies elsewhere at any time. Losing the top DreamWorks talent would be a huge blow to Paramount. DreamWorks is coming off a string of hits, notably "Blades of Glory," "Shrek the Third" and "Transformers," while Paramount's home-grown films have under-performed. In today's equity-money mad Hollywood, DreamWorks could easily line up financing for a new entity. Sources say that Geffen already has a wish list of three studios he believes would do the best job of marketing and distribution for DreamWorks, namely Warner Bros., Universal and 20th Century Fox.

I still maintain that DW won't be going anywhere in 2008--this is just a very public reminder that they could if they wanted to. But if you need any more evidence that Redstone is a little out of touch, Nikki Finke is reporting that he just renewed Robert Evan's deal at the studio.

Viacom shareholders are going to jump for joy when I tell them that recently Bob Evans' deal at Paramount was renewed yet again. And best buddy Sumner Redstone is the reason, even though Evans has had exactly one movie producer credit for the studio since 1999 (How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days) and legend has it he's rarely even allowed on the set of a film anymore. So why is old coot Sumner carrying basket case Bob? "Because, among other things, he helped build the place and I think that counts, don't you?"