Strike Watch 2007: Jobs Outlook

My best friend works as a grip at Paramount. He was over for dinner last night and we were talking about how a potential strike could affect his job. He's killing himself with long hours now, but he's heard that there won't be much work in a few months, so he's trying to put some money away. This new update from the LA County Economic Development Corp. probably won't make him feel much better about the future. From the Hollywood Reporter:

A regional economic forecast update boosts previous projections for job declines from potential Hollywood labor strife.

Even without a strike by writers, actors or directors, entertainment industry employment will decline 1.9% next year to 161,300 jobs, according to Wednesday report from the L.A. County Economic Development Corp. The midyear forecast also said that accelerated film and TV activity at the start of Hollywood contract talks will produce a modest 0.9% increase in entertainment employment this year, for a total 164,500 industry jobs.

In a February report, the agency had forecast an '08 decline of 1.4% and a more robust '07 jobs growth of 4.5% (HR 2/21).

LAEDC chief economist Jack Kyser attributed the short-term job growth and longer-term decline on studios' stockpiling of film and TV materials in anticipation of a possible strike by Hollywood writers or others. The WGA is in negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers for a new film and TV contract, and actors and directors are expected to commence similar talks sometime early next year.