Monday's Box-Office Rankings Today

Writing about Hostel II's marketing campaign earlier this week, I had the distinct feeling that the salad days of horror movies were coming to an end. Recent gore offering such as The Hitcher, The Hills Have Eyes II and Vacancy never quite connected with audiences. Fantasy Mogul's Steve Mason agrees in his piece today about the tracking for this weekend's box office. Mason has Hostel II coming in fifth overall this weekend, making $15.3 million. He offers this analysis:

Hollywood will need to change the way it looks at horror movies. Sadistic, bloody splatter films with strong R ratings are no longer going to be guaranteed monster openings. Clever and twisted ways to kill are no longer enough to get filmgoers through the door. These movies must have appeal with Females Under 25 instead of just feeding the apparent bloodlust of Males Under 25, and a PG-13 rating is more likely to sell tickets.

Mason puts Ocean's Thirteen (another "three-quel") in the top slot this weekend, predicting it will enjoy the best three-day opening in the Ocean's franchise. Total awareness is high, and slightly better with the 25-plus crowd, meaning the Warner Bros. pic could have legs, as the older folks are less likely to wait in opening-weekend lines. Here's how Mason sees the weekend (June 8-10) playing out:

1. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $51 million 2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $22.3 million 3. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $19.5 million 4. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $18.7 million 5. Hostel II (Lionsgate) -- $15.3 million 6. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $14.8 million 7. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $4.5 million 8. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $3.8 million 9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $1.55 million 10. Gracie (Picturehouse) -- $800,000

Empirical evidence is telling me that Knocked Up is ranked too low. I saw it this past Monday in a packed theater, the same day that it grossed more than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (it did the same on Tuesday). I think good word of mouth could push it higher, although it's in far less theaters (Knocked Up is playing on 2,877 venues vs. Pirates 4002). Joshua Rich at EW, who was spot on with his prediction about Knocked Up's take last week, seems to agree, although he has Surf's Up much higher.