Crystalballing the Future of HBO

Will HBO be fine without Chris Albrecht? I'm not sure that's a given.

Original programming, Albrecht's wheelhouse, has been HBO's bread and butter for a while, and with The Sopranos coming to an end, the pay channel is in desperate need of another big hit that will keep audiences paying that monthly bill, because they sure ain't coming just to see movies like 16 Blocks and Poseidon.

But here's the issue. HBO has been trying to find that show for a while with no luck. Entourage has scored for HBO, but its numbers are still nowhere close to mega-hits like Sex and the City or Six Feet Under. Big Love and Rome aren't showing massive appeal either.

And if you look at their upcoming shows, I'm not sure that they've found that home run just yet. Most promising is David Milch's John From Cincinnati, which will fill in the Sopranos Sunday night slot starting June 10th, about a troubled family of famous surfers and a mysterious stranger with seemingly paranormal powers.

No doubt, Milch is a unique talent, as he showed with his cowboy Shakespeare show Deadwood. But I've found the recent laconic promo for Cincinnati somewhat obtuse, underwhelming and confusing. I've also heard from one source that the show's pilot went through a massive reshoot (it's been filming down near San Diego) and that doesn't usually bode well for a series.

Another upcoming show for HBO is Flight of the Conchords, about a folk music duo from New Zealand. I recently saw some episodes and it's immensely amusing, but it seems a little too small and quirky to be a big breakout show.

Maybe audiences will be drawn to the upcoming relationship drama Tell Me You Love Me or In Treatment, about a psychologist (Gabriel Byrne) who seeks refuge from his patients by going to a therapist.

Or maybe HBO will strike a chord with one of their off-in-the-distance mini-series: the $100 million John Adams, based on David McCullough's Pulitzer prize winning book and starring Paul Giamatti; Generation Kill adapted from National Magazine Award winning journalist Evan Wright's book; or the $200 million The Pacific produced by Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg.

Or HBO can hope to score with its movie projects, like the Dick Wolf-produced Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee which airs this month. But even beyond the loss of a leader (albeit troubled) like Albrecht, these seem like transitional times for HBO.