Letterman—And 'Nightline'—Beating Conan in Late Night Cage Match

For a minute there, it seemed Conan O’Brien was everywhere, even cropping up in an interview with President Obama. Of course, that interview was with O'Brien's NBC-Universal corporate cousin, Brian Williams, wasting a little news time in the service of synergy.

According to the latest ratings reports, the bloom may soon be off the rose for NBC and O'Brien, who took over hosting duties for The Tonight Show in June. "Is David Letterman back?," wondered The Times' Bill Carter. For the first time in years, David Letterman's Late Show on CBS is pulling ahead of The Tonight Show to the tune of 4.4 million viewers over O'Brien's 2.5 million last week. But Dave’s not Conan’s only problem – The Tonight Show is actually a distant third after ABC's Nightline, which was watched by 4 million. We're not going to imply O'Brien could lose his gig—there's far too much at stake and far too few viable choices for a replacement for something that extreme to happen—but NBC's PR team may be thinking about Photoshopping Letterman's self-effacing "#3" billboards that hung above Times Square in 1997 to make the joke their own.

The amount of money riding on O'Brien's success—or lack thereof—is anything but a joke. According to a TVWeek report, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno generated in the neighborhood of $926,000 a night, which broke down to 30-second spots going for $50,877 in 2008. That's down some from 2002 when Leno had 5.7 million viewers and could get $60,000 per 30-second spot and Letterman brought in $40,000 for the same commercial placement. With O'Brien's ratings down, the cost of those spots can only fall, too, since the cost of those spots are evaluated each week based on the previous week's ratings. A losing streak could become very expensive for NBC.

To be fair, Letterman has benefited from a number of factors in pulling ahead, among them his trumped-up "feud" with soon-to-be ex-Alaska governor Sarah Palin and a blockbuster open air performance by Paul McCartney. But maybe O'Brien is also suffering because of his network's botched succession plan. By keeping Leno in the picture—his 10 PM show will begin in fall—NBC may have shown a lack of faith in its new Tonight Show host, keeping some viewers from embracing the new guy or freeing them up to explore other options.

Then again, O'Brien may just need more time to get his footing in his new timeslot: As fans of his Late Night show know all too well, O'Brien was on the bubble (and literally at risk of being fired) for months when he debuted in 1993.

With his ratings down, the night may be O'Brien's to lose. But it's definitely Letterman's to win.