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The Year in Research
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Mind Your Value Judgements
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S.E.C. Short-Sale Ban: Pretty Much Useless
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Advice from Japan: Don't Forget TARP 1
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Chart of the Day: Money Market Stress Easing
Dec 18 20088:57 pm EDT
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Dec 18 2008 5:57pm EDT
House Price Bubble Deflated?
Interesting set of charts from a presentation by Columbia's real estate guru Chris Mayer showing house prices relative to 50-year trends:
It looks like there is a bit of mean-reversion going on here, but two factors make Mayer think that there could be an overshoot: Excess housing supply and the high spread between 10-year Treasuries and 30-year mortgage rates --2.52% now versus 1.6% historical.
As Mayer and Hubbard said in their WSJ op-ed yesterday, the solution they like is the one proposed by the Treasury: lower mortgage rates to spur demand. But not everyone thinks that's a good idea. (Mayer and Hubbard's paper.)
