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Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Odd Numbers

by Zubin Jelveh
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Oct 13 2008 5:04pm EDT

Not Out of the Woods Yet

As long as we're using the Dow as a window into our collective economic future, let's not get too excited over today's 11 percent gain.

First, as per Moody's Economy.com, "even if we get past the credit panic, the holidays look lousy" as the long-awaited consumer pullback appears to have finally begun.

And second, there have been five other times since 1929 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 11 percent in a session: one time each in 1929, 1932, and 1933 and twice in 1931. Unfortunately, the Great Depression didn't end for another six years.

Luckily thanks to the United Kingdom's bold first step in announcing a recapitalization plan (and the rest of the developed world following thereafter), we're very unlikely to have to wait as long as six years to emerge from the current downturn.

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