Chart of the Day: Baseball Ex-Steroids

Former New York Mets G.M. and current ESPN on-air talent Steve Phillips has a new theory: Thanks to the Mitchell report, drug testing, and overall increased scrutiny, the steroids era is over and teams that play small-ball can thrive.

On the Mike and Mike Show yesterday, Phillips said "at the current pace we're on this season, Major League Baseball would be down over a thousand home runs in 2008 compared to the 2006 season." (emphasis mine)

He also points to the success of teams like the Tampa Bay ~~Devil~~ Rays (middle of the pack in home runs, last in doubles, near the top in steals) as evidence that clubs not reliant on power can now succeed.

But remember, Phillips is the guy who thought the Mets could get back to the World Series in 2001 with Ray Ordonez and Todd Zeile in the starting lineup. (Todd Zeile!!!) So let's take a look at some other numbers.

Here is the slugging average, a standard measure of power, for the American and National League since 1992. The 2008 number is likely to rise by the end of the season since April is typically a slow month for home runs.

Slugging

At the current pace, slugging will be near 1993 levels. Perhaps Phillips is onto something.

On the small-ball side, here is the stolen base rate since '92:

The last chart is a bit of a red herring. The number of stolen bases is actually down from 1998: 3,284 verus 2,918 last year -- this year we're roughly on the same pace.

The chart shows that teams are getting more successful at stealing, but actually attempting it less often, implying that clubs are wising up about when to steal. I don't see a clear argument for how a decline in steroid use spurred this on, especially since this trend started in 2001.

On the power side, there is evidence that weather influences power numbers. In 2006, April was relatively warm and home runs jumped over 2005 levels.

Over at Sabermonics, JC has charted the relationship between home runs and weather in past Aprils:

It's not perfect, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between weather and power. He writes:

This doesn't mean drug testing has not affected hitting power, but we have have a decent alternative explanation for why home runs are down.

Taken together, it appears that Phillips is about as great a statistician as he was a general manager.

(Hat tip: Ryan Schick)

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