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May 13 2008 12:00am EDT
Chart of the Day: The Worst Is Over
The Philly Fed says its Anxious Index -- forecasters' expectations that the economy will contract in the coming quarter -- slipped.
Professional forecasters expect a 28.7 percent chance of a negative reading for GDP in the third quarter, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we won't be in a recession. On seven previous quarterly forecasts since 1968, the group pegged the chance of a GDP decline in the coming quarter at 30 percent or less but the NBER still declared the quarter to be recessionary. □
