Recent Blog Posts
-
The Year in Research
Dec 31 20089:13 am EDT -
Mind Your Value Judgements
Dec 19 20087:52 pm EDT -
S.E.C. Short-Sale Ban: Pretty Much Useless
Dec 19 20083:45 pm EDT -
Advice from Japan: Don't Forget TARP 1
Dec 19 20082:31 pm EDT -
Chart of the Day: Money Market Stress Easing
Dec 18 20088:57 pm EDT -
House Price Bubble Deflated?
Dec 18 20085:57 pm EDT -
Where Were the Whistleblowers?
Dec 16 200811:03 pm EDT -
It's Just a Recession
Dec 13 200810:20 pm EDT -
Comparing American and European Unemployment Insurance
Dec 12 20087:46 pm EDT -
Back to Normal?
Dec 11 20084:33 pm EDT
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Chart of the Day: The Worst Is Over
The Philly Fed says its Anxious Index -- forecasters' expectations that the economy will contract in the coming quarter -- slipped.
Professional forecasters expect a 28.7 percent chance of a negative reading for GDP in the third quarter, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we won't be in a recession. On seven previous quarterly forecasts since 1968, the group pegged the chance of a GDP decline in the coming quarter at 30 percent or less but the NBER still declared the quarter to be recessionary. □
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