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Intrade Contract Watch Mugabe Presidency

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by Zubin Jelveh
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Apr 01 2008 12:00am EDT

Intrade Contract Watch: Mugabe Presidency

Traders are only giving a five percent that President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe will step down by the end of June (and 20 percent by the end of September).

Here is the chart of the June contract:

Meanwhile, NYT reports that negotiations may lead to Mugabe's exit, but the president's people are denying the story.

Is this a case of illiquidity in the Intrade market, or an accurate reflection of the chances of a Mugabe ouster?

UPDATE
Looks like it's the former. The June contract is now at 62.1 percent as 10 lots were bought at 1:39 P.M.

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