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Election Markets vs. Polls: Super Tuesday Edition
by Zubin Jelveh
Feb 06, 2008
Feb 06, 2008
UPDATE 9:12 A.M.
In the end, prediction markets were better predictors of the outcomes in Alabama and Missouri on the Democratic side, while both polls and markets didn't have good early reads on the California victory for Hillary Clinton.
On the Republican side, everyone was surprised by Mike Huckabee's victories in states like Georgia and Tennessee. Chris Masse has the standings here.
The upshot of the Superduper Tuesday is that traders have converted all the new information we got last night into giving both Obama and Clinton a 31 percent chance of being our next president while giving John McCain a 37 percent chance of success in November.
However, this speaks more to the uncertainty over the eventual outcome of on the Democratic side. The contract for a Democratic victory in November gives them a 60 percent chance of winning versus a 40 percent chance for the Republicans.
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