Does Crime Rise When Welfare Checks Are Delayed?

The stimulus plan that zipped through the House last month has hit a snag in the Senate: Democrats want more help for the poor, unemployed and elderly while Republicans want more tax rebates.

One key hang up for some Democrats is additional funding for the food stamp program. For example, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin -- who incidentally hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate yet -- wants a 20 percent increase in food stamp benefits, or about $85 a month more for a family of three.

No matter how this debate is concluded when the Senate gets back to work tomorrow after Super Tuesday, policy makers should also look at the timing of when welfare benefits are paid, says Harvard economist C. Fritz Foley.

Economists have shown that people who receive cash assistance typically spend them too quickly. So it wouldn't be a stretch to think that the chance that someone would commit a crime to supplement their income could rise as more time passes after an assistance payment.

In a new paper, Foley looked at 12 major cities in the country where at least 10 percent of the residents received one of three types of welfare payments: food stamps, temporary assistance and SSI payments.

Some cities made payments at the beginning of the month while others staggered them throughout. (Payment schedules are set at the federal and state levels, not city.)

He then made two comparisons:

- the crime levels between these two types of cities
- the level of financially motivated crimes like robbery and burglary versus crimes like rape and murder in the cities making early welfare payments. The reason for this latter comparison is that if someone is moved to commit a crime in order to gain money, they're more likely to burglarize or rob than to murder or rape.

Foley found that crime did indeed rise as more time passed after a welfare payment -- on the order of 6 percent.

Payment schedules are currently set largely based on keeping administrative costs low. But Foley's findings imply that
if cities which make payments early -- like Fresno, Newark and Washington, D.C. -- adjusted these schedules, they could see crime levels drop.