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What Behavioral Economics Is All About   That Trusty Yield Curve
Jan 17 2008 11:37AM EST

Chart of the Day: College Football and Crime

Via Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution, here is a new paper which finds that the home team's community has

sharp increases in assaults, vandalism, arrests for disorderly conduct, and arrests for alcohol-related offenses on game days. Upsets are associated with the largest increases in the number of expected offenses.

The lighter gray bar in the following graphics from the paper shows the average number of arrests for the crime in question during gamedays:

football.crime.gif

Looking at 26 Division I-A football programs between 2000 to 2005, Daniel Rees and Kevin Schnepel of the University of Colorado find a small association between home games and assaults and vandalism. For the entire season home games are associated with a 9 percent increase in assaults, an 18 percent increase in vandalism.

It's during upsets were the relationship between home games and crime becomes more interesting:

According to our estimates, expected assaults increase by 112 percent with an upset loss at home, and by 36 percent with an upset victory.

What's the cause of more unruly citizens? According to past research, there's a good chance it's being driven entirely by increased alcohol consumption.

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