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Nov 30 2007 12:00am EDT
Australian Elections: Prediction Markets Vs. Polls
I'm a bit late on this, but it's gone mostly unnoticed. So in case you missed it, prediction markets had a good time of it last week during Australia's elections. Via Andrew Leigh:
"I think the way to interpret these data are that the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong."(emphasis added)
Chris Masse has a bit more.
Checking in on the U.S. elections, Obama is surging. His chances in Iowa have shot upwards over the last three weeks on inTrade:
And the probability he'll win the Democratic nomination has also improved:
