BizJournals Portfolio
Home >   Business Views, Opinions and Blogs >   Business Blogs >   Odd Numbers >  

Australian Elections Prediction Markets Vs Polls

Odd Numbers

by Zubin Jelveh
Main
Claim: A-Rod's Dollars Make Sense for Yankees   Are Violins Good Investments?

Recent Blog Posts

Links

Nov 30 2007 12:00am EDT

Australian Elections: Prediction Markets Vs. Polls

I'm a bit late on this, but it's gone mostly unnoticed. So in case you missed it, prediction markets had a good time of it last week during Australia's elections. Via Andrew Leigh:

"I think the way to interpret these data are that the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong."
(emphasis added)

Chris Masse has a bit more.

Checking in on the U.S. elections, Obama is surging. His chances in Iowa have shot upwards over the last three weeks on inTrade:

obama1.gif

And the probability he'll win the Democratic nomination has also improved:

obama2.gif

Comments

If you are commenting using a Facebook account, your profile information may be displayed with your comment depending on your privacy settings. By leaving the 'Post to Facebook' box selected, your comment will be published to your Facebook profile in addition to the space below.


Connect With Portfolio.com
Like Portfolio on Facebook

Come on, like us—you know you want to.

Follow Portfolio on Twitter

Follow us and if you're an innovative entrepreneur, we'll return the favor.

The Mix

Today's top stories, conversation starters, and the back nine business bites.

spotlight on

Slideshows

500 Startups Hits New York

Dave McClure's brainchild makes its way to New York and introduces East Coast money folks to some intriguing new companies. View Slideshow