The Wisdom of Crowds, Nintendo Style

When Nintendo quietly introduced its Everybody Votes channel this past Valentine's Day, the online gaming community didn't quite know what to make of it. With all the hype and success surrounding the launch of the Wii, the seemingly unambitious Everybody Votes -- basically a polling tool -- was either a brilliant idea, harmless fun or a throw-away.

Nine months later, it's not any easier to tell if there is a higher purpose to Everybody Votes and Nintendo hasn't returned my calls on the topic.

(There was some speculation that EV would become a great consumer research tool, but only one question could've been seen in that light.)

Still, there is something slightly addictive in finding out how Wii users feel about various inane topics, and I've found myself going back to the channel a number of times.

Here are the basics of what you do on EV:

• A couple of times a week a new national or global poll question pops up.
• After you pick your answer, you can then predict what other Everybody Votes users will select.
• Then about a week later the results are posted broken down by accuracy, male/female percentages, and, depending on whether it was a national or global poll, rudimentary results by state or country.

This is a breakdown of preferences among Japanese Everybody Votes users on udon versus soba noodles. Udon are historically grown in the south while soba noodles are traditionally popular in the north:

Here is an American version of the same phenomenon:

• Is it called pop or soda?

24.9% of EV users said pop (purple) versus 75.1% who said soda (green).

Which matches pretty closely to this more scientifically contructed map:

(Note: "pop" is represented by blue, "soda" by yellow, and "coke" by red)

Here are some other recent favorites (this blog keeps track of recent polls):

• Which came first, the chicken or the egg? (Chicken 57.1%, Users' Prediction Accuracy 56.7%)
Would you erase part of your past if you could? (Yes 60.9%, Prediction Accuracy 75.2%)
During dinner, is your TV usually on or off? (On 67.8%, Prediction Accuracy 76.0%)

But what moved me to actually write about Everybody Votes is what seems like the beginnings of a trend to ask users about questions that have actual non-disputable answers.

Example 1:

• Which is colder? South Pole or North Pole?

Wii users correctly said that the South Pole is the colder end of the earth: South Pole: 62.3%, Prediction Accuracy: 50.1%

Example 2:

• Telephone poles are made from tall trees or wood by-products?

In this case, Wii users incorrectly voted 56.1% that utility poles are made Ikea style.

Here is a map which shows how the voting broke-down by state. Purple means the majority of Everbody Votes users in that state picked "tall trees," and green means the majority picked "wood by-products":

Is it surprising that EV users in two of the nation's biggest logging states happened to know the correct answer?

These are the only two examples I've been able to find, but if Nintendo continues down this path it'll be a nice exercise in verifying the accuracy of the wisdom of crowds.

Update: Chris Masse calls me out for tagging this post with "prediction markets."