Want Democracy? Assassinate the President!

Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf is no stranger to assassination attempts.

Earlier this month, shots were fired at his plane as it took off from a military base. (It was at least the fourth assassination attempt on Musharraf since 2003.)

While Islamic extremists are likely behind the attempts on his life -- suggesting that Pakistan's future without Musharraf could be similar to Afghanistan under the Taliban's oppressive regime -- a new paper implies that if Musharraf's military rule ended in blood, the chances of democracy returning to Pakistan might actually improve.

According to Benjamin Jones of Northwestern and Benjamin Olken of Harvard, between 1875 and 2004 there were 251 serious attempts made on the lives of national leaders, excluding coup d'etats, resulting in 59 deaths. That's a 24 percent success rate. (A serious attempt is one in which a gun was fired or a bomb exploded.)

Examining these attempts and successes, the researchers found that:

     - Killing the ruler in autocratic countries improves the chances of institutional change, but not in democratic countries.

     - Assassinations of autocrats improve the chances of that country becoming a democracy by 13 percent and that effect is sustained for at least 10 years after the killing.

     - Attempts by solo assassins slightly outnumber group attempts (59% versus 41%).

     - Guns are more successful (30%) at getting the job done than explosives (7%).

That last point suggests that bravery is a plus on any assassins resume. Using a gun, while a lot easier than building and placing a bomb, means that a would-be assassin has to get a lot closer to his target, and increase the chances of getting caught, than a bomber pushing a button blocks away.