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Odd Numbers

Real Housewives of NYC -- A Lot of Them

The Big Apple likes to see itself as the heart of capitalism where business can be conducted at all hours. But a sizable chunk of the New York City-area population has quietly managed to keep itself out of that rat race.

If you're a married woman living in the New York City area, there's a better than 50 percent chance that you don't work, according to a new working paper from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

More specifically, only 49 percent of white high school-educated married women in their prime working ages were holding down jobs in the New York area as of the 2000 Census. The national average for this particular demographic is 67 percent. At the other end of the spectrum is Minneapolis where almost 80 percent of these married women are employed -- that's larger than the percentage of working men aged 25 and older in the U.S.

And the phenomenon isn't recent one. Since the 1970's married women in the Twin Cities have been living by the Protestant Ethic more than their New York counterparts. (The disparity isn't as drastic if you only look at college-educated married women -- highest rate goes to Albany with 80 percent and lowest to Honolulu with 64 percent -- but it's still there.) ... Continue

When Envy Trumps Ambition

Do you know how much your coworkers get paid?

The answer is almost sure to be no, since as both a bargaining strategy and a tool to limit jealousy between cubicle-mates, companies want to keep pay information under wraps. But there's another reason that employers may want protect compensation information: A worker's knowledge of their own place in the pecking order could "motivate" them to slack off.

There's been a lively debate among economists in recent years over the importance of relative, as opposed to absolute, income. One side, let's call them the absolutists, says people derive feelings of well-being from how much they make regardless of where they are in the food in chain, and the chance to make more money should in most cases motivate people to work harder. The relativists argue that people don't make decisions in a vacuum, and a person's rank (compared with neighbors, coworkers, classmates) influences their actions.

... Continue

Achieving Universal Coverage at No Extra Cost

While the health care plans of Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Barack Obama have understandably gotten most of the attention, there is another proposal working its way through Congress that might be better than all three. A preliminary evaluation ... Continue
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Gambling Strategies: Always Bet on White (Referees)

Justin Wolfers and Joseph Price showed us evidence last year that NBA referees tend to call less fouls on players of their own ethnicity -- and that this could influence the outcome of games.

Wolfers and Price (joined by Tim Larsen of BYU) have now turned their attention to the betting market's ability to exploit this inefficiency.

...
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Unanswered Questions: To Pause or Not to Pause?

Most Fed watchers were expecting the FOMC to signal in its post-meeting statement that rates would remain steady after today's cut. That view was boosted when this short phrase on growth prospects in the March statement went missing: "However, downside ... Continue
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First it was the rebirth of the long bond in 2006, and now, after a 7-year hiatus, the 1-year bill has been given new life as worsening economic conditions mean less tax revenue. But the rebirth of the 1-year bill ... Continue
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Does It Make Sense to Buy Forever Stamps?

The United States Postal Service announced yesterday that the one-year-old Forever stamp -- 1st-class postage that will be good any time in the future even if mailing prices go up -- has been a hot seller as the date of a one-cent hike approaches.

Over 6 billion have been purchased since last April comprising roughly 17 percent of all stamps sales.

"We introduced these stamps as a customer convenience to ease the transition during price changes, and they also deliver economic value," the Postal Service said in a press release.

Does that claim hold up? Looking back at rate hikes over the past 30 years, it would be hard to make a good case for buying Forevers as they haven't kept up with inflation ... Continue

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When Jews and Christians Compete

Last week, Jews around the world observed Passover, the holiest event on the Judaic calendar. Christians typically celebrate Easter around the same time, but this year the anniversary of Jesus Christ's rise from the dead fell in late March. (The ... Continue
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Using a set of pretty charts, NYT columnist Thomas Friedman put forth in 2006 the First Law of Petropolitics which states "that the price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions."

I've reproduced some of the chart below from the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Policy:

... Continue

What's Up With the Manufacturing Data?

In coming up with dates for U.S. recessions, the NBER says that it gives the most weight to four economic indicators: employment, personal income, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales.

Below is a chart plotting year-over-year changes in the first two. It's much more visible in the employment growth line (blue), but both series seem to have peaked and have been trending downwards:

... Continue

Don't Blame China for Rise in Inequality

In his recent Brookings paper, Princeton economist and NYT columnist Paul Krugman tried to find out how low-wage workers were affected by rising trade with cheap-labor countries like China. His working assumption was that this type of trade should reduce ... Continue

Have Wages Kept Up With Productivity Growth?

In his new book "The Big Squeeze: Tough Times for the American Worker" (excerpted here), NYT reporter Steven Greenhouse writes of a seemingly new relationship between wages and productivity in the current economic cycle:
"Even though corporate profits have doubled since recession gave way to economic expansion in November 2001, and even though employee productivity has risen more than 15 percent since then, the average wage for the typical American worker has inched up just 1 percent (after inflation). With the subprime mortgage crisis threatening to pull the economy into recession, some economists say this may be the first time in American history that the typical working household goes through an economic expansion without any increase in income whatsoever."
...
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The Death of Mega-Contracts in Baseball?

Last week, the Tampa Bay Rays signed their rookie third baseman Evan Longoria to a 6-year deal worth $17.5 million after just six games in the majors. The Rays have the option to keep Longoria around an additional three years if they like his performance, making the deal worth a possible $44.5 million over nine years.

In a similar fashion this January, the Colorado Rockies locked up their young short stop Troy Tulowitzki after just one full season to a 6-year $31 million deal plus a one-year club option.

Of course, teams haven't been shy about signing young stud players to longer terms deals in the past. After two fulls seasons, Vladimir Guerrerro was given a 5-year deal by the Montreal Expos in 1999 and Alex Rodriguez was given a 4-year deal by the Seattle Mariners in 1997. The Red Sox signed Nomar Garciaparra to a 5-year contract in 1998 after one full season ... Continue

Should Short-Selling Be Restricted?

I criticized Barack Obama's call to go after market manipulators like those rumored to have brought down Bear Stearns last month. My contention was that stricter enforcement could have a chilling effect on the dispersal of good information. But regulators seem to be taking the issue seriously. In congressional testimony earlier this month, S.E.C. boss Chris Cox strongly implied that the agency was looking into the Bear matter.

And Knowledge @ Wharton now points us to some recent research which argues that "bear raids" can cause real economic, not just financial, harm ... Continue

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In the wake of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal in 2006, the media focused on the potentially huge payoffs from corporate lobbying. The Washington Post reported that a group of 60 companies saved roughly $100 billion in foreign taxes after ... Continue
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If you follow baseball, these names will likely ring a bell:

Roberto Alomar, Sandy Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Wil Cordero, Carlos Delgado, Jos