Why 'Jay Leno' Is a Bigger Risk Than NBC Thinks

Jeff Zucker says Jay Leno's new 10 p.m. show is going to be "DVR-proof." Maybe he's right. But will it be Hulu-proof?

At a press conference announcing the birth of The Jay Leno Show the other day, NBC Universal's chairman maintained that the viewers of the new program would be disinclined to fast-forward through commercials, since the show will be fresh every night.

I'm not so sure I see the logic there. Why shouldn't Jay Leno Show fans be just as likely as anyone else to tune in 20 minutes late and skip the ads? Is every opening monologue going to be such a water-cooler-worthy event that people will feel compelled to watch it in real time, a la Obama's victory speech?

But, right or wrong, this thinking ignores a more relevant issue. Talk shows an ideal format for viewing that takes the form of snacks rather than meals. If you tune into the first five minutes of CSI, or any comparable scripted drama (or even reality series), chance are you're going to still be around for the last five minutes to find out what happens. And if you missed last week's episode, you're going to try to get caught up before watching this week's.

Talk shows aren't like that at all. It's the most natural thing in the world to tune into Conan or Letterman and stick around just through the second commercial break or through the big interview. Zucker says the solution to that is to reserve some of the good stuff for the final act of Jay Leno to ensure that local newscasts at NBC affiliates have a decent lead-in.

But that's exactly the kind of thinking that will drive viewers to watch the show with TiVo remote in hand -- or, worse, to give up altogether and cherry-pick the segments worth watching on Hulu. (After all, seeing it on the big screen makes a difference when it's a high-production-value affair like Heroes; when it's two guys in suits sitting in chairs and talking, the HD experience isn't quite so important.)

Maybe this is really forward thinking of Zucker; NBC does own half of Hulu, whose fast-growing revenues are an undeniable bright spot for the company. This could be a rare case of a big media conglomerate actually thinking a few steps down the road and prioritizing the future over the quarterly earnings. That's what Horizon Media research chief Brad Adgate thinks. "That's all part of the NBC strategy," says Adgate (who notes that the network is a client). "If you have an opportunity to watch Jay Leno on any screen at any time, that's a good thing."

No doubt that's part of the strategy. But I also suspect, Zucker, besotted with visions of massive savings, doesn't fully grasp the implications of taking some of the most valuable real estate on television and giving it to a show whose average viewer will be content to see only a few minutes a day.