At 'NY Times,' the Futurist Is Now...Leaving

The New York Times may or may not have a bright future, but as of today it doesn't have a futurist.

New media guru Michael Rogers, who for the past two years has mulled the long-term challenges facing the news media as the paper's futurist-in-residence, is leaving to go back to consulting. No word yet on whether the Times will replace him.

"It was the idea right from the start that we would make this a mutual engagement," says Rogers, noting that his initial one-year appointment was extended last year at the behest of Michael Zimbalist, the New York Times Co.'s vice president of research and development.

And what has two years of professional crystal-ball-gazing taught Rogers about the future of media?

"I think probably the most interesting thing that emerged from a lot of the research I helped with was just how hard it's going to be to replace paper," he says. "I've been doing this for 20 years now, and the longer I do it the more it seems like a really good medium that's going to be around for quite a while longer."

Asked whether everything he's learned has made him more or less pessimistic about the Times's prospects, he says, "I've become more worried about some newspapers but less about what the Times is doing. They're doing all the right things. We're looking at quite a shakeout over the next five to eight years, but I think many companies are positioning themselves properly to get through it. I think the Times is doing more than most any other media company I've worked with in the past."

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Disclosure: I've freelanced for the Times.

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