Jann Wenner's Very Bad Year

At least once a year, the rumor floats up that Jann Wenner is finally ready to hang it up. This time it comes courtesy of Charlie Rose, who asked Vanity Fair editor Graydon Carter whether it's true that Conde Nast Publications wants to buy Wenner's Rolling Stone. Carter demurred.

Personally, I think it's unlikely. True, Conde Nast (which owns Portfolio) is one of the few magazine publishers not in flat-out retrenchment mode, and truly iconic brands like Rolling Stone don't come on the market often. But its shrinking ad base doesn't fit particularly well with Conde's roster of high-end, fashion-focused titles. Unless it could be had at a bargain-basement price, it would be a poor acquisition.

That said, Wenner might want to give some serious thought to cashing in his chips now, considering his recent run of luck at the tables:

-Rolling Stone is down a staggering 25 percent in ad pages year-to-date, according to Mediaweek. Some of that is probably cyclical, but some of the magazine's historic advertising base -- music and tobacco, especially -- isn't coming back.

-In December, the title was the spark for a massive lawsuit by eight state attorneys general, accusing RJ Reynolds of violating a settlement prohibiting the use of cartoons in tobacco advertising. Rolling Stone's publisher, Ray Chelstowski, has said the magazine, not the cigarette maker, is to blame for the ad -- a statement that could come back to haunt Wenner in the event the tobacco maker turns around and sues the publisher to recoup any fines it has to pay.* In fact, lately, Wenner sources have been speculating that it's only the fear of having Chelstowski floating free as a potential hostile witness that has kept Jann Wenner -- whose relish for firing people is rivaled only by his passions for skiing and buddying up to Baby Boomer celebrities -- from dumping him.

-Us Weekly, Wenner's cash cow in recent years, seems finally to have peaked, and is now on the downslope. With a lull in celebrity news, it has missed its rate base (or guaranteed circulation minimum) of 1.9 million for 11 of the 19 issues so far this year, according to ABC Rapid Report. If the trend continues, Wenner could end up owing refunds or free ad space to advertisers.

-Us's trajectory reversal comes less than two years after Wenner bought back the half of the magazine he didn't own from Disney for $300 million. Wenner sold the stake to Disney for a mere $40 million when it looked like the relaunch wasn't working out. That's one costly loss of nerve.

-Kent Brownridge, Wenner's longtime majordomo, has been poaching his old boss's top talent, plucking Rolling Stone's Joe Levy and Men's Journal's James Kaminsky to edit Blender and Maxim, respectively. Brownridge plays down the rivalry angle, but it can't be denied that he knows Wenner's business better than Wenner does.

Correction, 4:22 p.m.: The original version of this story stated that Rolling Stone was named in the tobacco lawsuit. Only RJ Reynolds was named.