A Fluke or a Trend? CNBC's Demo Mystery

What's happening to CNBC's younger viewers? For the second month in a row, the financial network posted strong growth in total audience while suffering year-over-year shrinkage in the all-important 25-to-54-year-old demographic. All of CNBC's Business Day programs were down in "the demo," as it's known, including Power Lunch (down 32 percent to 82,000 viewers), Squawk on the Street (down 23 percent to 110,000) and The Call (down 19 percent to 102,000). And all this while the network enjoyed its best month in total viewership since 2001. (It's worth noting, however, that February's demo average during Business Day, 81,000, was the network's best since August, and up 7 percent over January.)

Asked about the discrepancy, a CNBC spokesman responded with a statement that emphasized the total-viewers performance. "CNBC is the fastest growing cable news network in Business Day February-over-February in total viewers -- even with increased traffic from election news on the traditional cable nets," he said.

Two television analysts, meanwhile, said a variety of factors seemed to be at work. For one thing, "[i]t's within the realm of possibility that it's just a random fluctuation," says Horizon Media's director of research, Brad Adgate. "It could just be something within the Nielsen sample."

"These shifts could be statistical and not a real change because the cable numbers aren't very big," agrees Shari Anne Brill, director of programming at Carat.

On the other hand lies the possibility that Fox Business Network has been kidnapping some of its rival's most desirable eyeballs. Although FBN has been far from a ratings juggernaut in its first five months, it has had some success poaching CNBC's talent. (Update: Okay, so "some success" is probably overstating it -- the only CNBC-er to jump to FBN full-time so far is Liz Claman.)

"Viewers are habitual," says Brill. "They like their hosts and they like their anchors. Some viewers may have followed CNBC's talent to the new destination."

Whatever the reason, it's a good bet CNBC's anxiety over its soft demo numbers outweigh its total-audience triumphalism, says Adgate: "Deals are done on demos, not households, so they would prefer a strong adults 25-54 rating more than practically any other number."

Here's the CNBC statement in full:

"CNBC's Business Day is off to a strong start in 2008 and is had its best February since 2001 in total viewers. CNBC is the fastest growing cable news network in Business Day (5 AM-7 PM ET) February-over-February in total viewers -- even with increased traffic from election news on the traditional cable nets. CNBC is up 20% from Feb 2007 to Feb 2008, with CNN up 15%, FOXNC +9%, HLN +3% and MSNBC +1%."