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Jan 4 2008 7:00AM EST

The 'NYT'-Bloomberg Merger: Could It Happen?

Paul Steiger thinks there's a possibility Bloomberg LP and The New York Times Co. could merge sometime after the election, assuming Mike Bloomberg doesn't win the presidency. Jim Cramer agrees.

But what do the analysts think?

It depends on whom you ask. By and large, analysts for the big investment banks can't or don't want to be quoted speculating about a deal that's months away and perhaps entirely hypothetical. "At this point, I'm not sure it's a high probability," says one who asks not to be identified. "Every indication so far is the Sulzbergers don't want to cede control of the company," he says, referring to the family that owns 88 percent of the class B voting shares. "But at some point, all these newspaper companies will go private or be acquired. It's just a matter of when."

"I think the probably of the Sulzberger family selling out is below zero," says Edward Atorino, head of media research for the Benchmark Co. "That family is deeply, deeply ingrained in The New York Times. They run the paper not as much as a business but as a political platform. Certainly, they're not going to sell it as long as Bush is in office."

"Then again," he adds, "if you would have asked me the chances of the Bancrofts selling The Wall Street Journal, I would have said slim to none."

Even assuming the Sulzbergers would sell, however, there's the question of whether Bloomberg would buy. Unlike Rupert Murdoch, who is a lifelong newspaperman, Bloomberg's roots are in electronic media, notes Atorino.

But Mike Vorhaus, senior vice president and managing director at Frank N. Magid Associates, believes Bloomberg would be interested in the Times Co. at the right price.

"If you're looking for a great offline brand and a great online brand, they're about as good as you're going to get," he says.

"The only reason it's unimaginable is if you think [the Sulzbergers] just will not sell. But it would not surprise me if the family was willing to sell, and it would not surprise me to see a healthy competition among media companies to buy The New York Times.


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