Dick Parsons is Dead; Long Live Dick Parsons

All those folks impatient to see the back of Dick Parsons and the revival of Time Warner's stock are getting their wish -- and not.

From The Wall Street Journal:

Time Warner is expected to confirm [current TW No. 2 Jeffrey] Bewkes as the next CEO before the end of the year, people familiar with the matter say. He is expected to take the reins as early as Jan. 1, five months before Mr. Parsons's contract expires

Great news for all those agitators furious at Parsons for his refusal to spin off AOL, Time Inc. and Time Warner Cable -- the moves a lot of people think would be the surest way to inject a little adrenaline into the conglomerate's long-stagnant share price. Right?

Only the Journal's Matthew Karnitschnig doesn't think so. "Associates say he is worried that a major restructuring may have little or no effect on the stock price -- undermining one of the principal reasons for a breakup," he writes. One factor in Bewkes's thinking: the experience of Viacom, which split into two only to have one half (CBS) flourish while the other (Viacom) foundered.

Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield, a persistent Parsons gadfly, concurs with Karnitschnig's analysis, which is why, earlier this month, he called for a "corporate restructuring expert" to be brought in as CEO instead of Bewkes. That was never going to happen, of course, but enough such demands just may eventually force Bewkes to get over his reservations and fire up the chainsaw.

UPDATE: Fortune (which also quotes Greenfield -- isn't there anyone else out there bashing TW?) also takes a look at Bewkes and comes away with roughly the same non-conclusion: He probably won't break up the company, unless he does.