BizJournals Portfolio
Sep 25 2008 5:32pm EDT

The Pressure to Hedge in the Credit Markets

Lex has a theory about the way in which the CDS market can drive a vicious cycle in credit:

The pressure to hedge has led the most liquid contracts to overshoot, in effect pricing in absurd default risks and recovery rates. These same prices are then used as supposedly objective indicators to value the securities the CDS contracts were designed to hedge - hence the spiral of over-hedging and overstated marked-to-market losses.

It sounds vaguely plausible -- but is it really happening? If you want to reduce your credit exposure, it's certainly easier to buy protection in the CDS market than it is to try to sell illiquid cash securities. But with counterparty risk spiking upwards, CDS protection is less of a hedge now than it's ever been. And when banks say that they've been deleveraging, I never get the impression that they've been doing that by keeping all their existing assets on their books and then just buying billions of dollars of CDS.

So color me skeptical, here. Which insitutions, specifically, have reacted to "the pressure to hedge" buy buying large amounts of credit default swaps? Once we get an idea of who they are, we'll probably better understand whether that dynamic can drive down bond prices.


Comments

If you are commenting using a Facebook account, your profile information may be displayed with your comment depending on your privacy settings. By leaving the 'Post to Facebook' box selected, your comment will be published to your Facebook profile in addition to the space below.


Connect With Portfolio.com

Come on, like us—you know you want to.

Follow us and if you're an innovative entrepreneur, we'll return the favor.

Today's top stories, conversation starters, and the back nine business bites.

spotlight on

Slideshows

500 Startups Hits New York

Dave McClure's brainchild makes its way to New York and introduces East Coast money folks to some intriguing new companies. View Slideshow