Recent Blog Posts
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The Times' Rorshach Geithner Story
Apr 27 20099:04am EDT -
Sinking Animal Spirits
Apr 27 20098:04am EDT -
Counter-cyclical Urban Policy
Apr 26 200910:04am EDT -
Be Your Own Counterfeiter
Apr 26 20099:04am EDT -
Being Tim Geithner
Apr 25 200912:04pm EDT -
Notes From a Press Conference Naif
Apr 25 20099:04am EDT -
What Good is the News?
Apr 25 20098:04am EDT -
Stressful Enough
Apr 24 20092:04pm EDT -
Not Regretting the Pound
Apr 24 20091:04pm EDT -
Introducing the New Ford Squeeze
Apr 24 20099:04am EDT -
Non-Economic Questions of the Day
Apr 24 20099:04am EDT -
The Stress Test Blind Alley
Apr 24 20098:04am EDT -
Happy Hour
Apr 23 20099:04pm EDT -
Recovery Without Rebalancing
Apr 23 20096:04pm EDT -
The Shape of Your Recession
Apr 23 20095:04pm EDT
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Unreal Rally
While I've been trying to catch up with my RSS feeds, Jeff Cane noticed that the stock market surged today, for no discernible reason.
One big bank writes down $19 billion. Another shores up its capital to put to rest rumors that it could be the next Bear Stearns. Those are reasons to start buying up shares of financial companies?
Jeff is wary about reading too much into this rally; I am too. I particularly mistrust this kind of thing:
It's the first trading day of the second quarter. The market slumped in the two previous quarters, and it has been three decades since it has had three consecutive down quarters.
There's a hell of a lot of once-in-every-thirty-years events going on right now. If someone offers me better-than-even odds, I'll happily bet on a stock-market decline in Q2. Not because I think it's going to happen, but just because I think it's a coin-toss out there.






