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Second Guessing The Fed Already

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by Felix Salmon
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Nov 02 2007 12:00am EDT

Second-Guessing the Fed, Already

The lead article in the print version of the WSJ this morning is headlined "Fresh Credit Worries Grip Markets". Naturally, it leads with the Fed angle:

The angst in the financial markets stood in contrast to the views Federal Reserve officials expressed Wednesday. They said their latest rate cut, combined with a more aggressive one in September, should help forestall damage to the broad economy from credit-market turmoil. But the latest market developments raised investor expectations the Fed may ease again.

The lead article on the WSJ website this morning is about the October payrolls report. Naturally, it leads with the Fed angle:

U.S. employment soared at its fastest pace in five months in October led by strong gains in services, easing concerns about the state of the economy and suggesting further Federal Reserve rate cuts are highly unlikely in the near term.

Can we get a grip, people? The last FOMC meeting finished on Wednesday. It's now Friday. The next FOMC meeting doesn't come until December 11, which is 26 trading days away. One day of gyration in the stock market does not a rate cut make, and I'm sure the Fed had some indication on Wednesday of what would be in this morning's report. We have six more weeks of data to go before the next Fed decision; let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The Fed statement on Wednesday made it pretty clear that another rate cut was unlikely; that should remain the base case for at least a couple of weeks.

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