The Electability of Al Gore

According to the most recent trades on InTrade, the chance of Al Gore running for president is 11%, the chance of his receiving the Democratic nomination is 6.4%, and the chance of his winning the presidency is 5.7%.

Which means that InTrade's traders reckon Gore has a 58% chance of getting the nomination if he runs, and an 89% chance of winning the presidency if he's nominated, and an all-over probability of 52% that he'll become president if he throws his hat in the ring.

Meanwhile, the favorite for president, Hillary Clinton, has already thrown her hat in the ring, and is given a 48% chance of becoming president. (Giuliani's in a distant second place, on 17.6%.) Which means, I think, that Al Gore is considered to be the best presidential candidate in America, on a pure electability criterion.

That said, there is probably some selection bias going on here. Gore won't throw his hat in the ring so long as Clinton is looking as invincible as she looks right now – something very nasty would have to happen to her campaign first. So Gore's 52% is contingent on Hillary weakness, while Clinton's 48% prices in the possibility of future Hillary weakness.

Still, it's interesting to see how popular Gore is considered to be, compared especially to the other front-runners such as Giuliani, Romney (8.1%), and Obama (6.6%). Basically, the markets are saying that Gore would obliterate any of them, were he to run.

(HT: Robin Hanson)

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