Recent Blog Posts
-
The Times' Rorshach Geithner Story
Apr 27 20099:26 am EDT -
Sinking Animal Spirits
Apr 27 20098:45 am EDT -
Counter-cyclical Urban Policy
Apr 26 200910:00 am EDT -
Be Your Own Counterfeiter
Apr 26 20099:36 am EDT -
Being Tim Geithner
Apr 25 200912:37 pm EDT -
Notes From a Press Conference Naif
Apr 25 20099:41 am EDT -
What Good is the News?
Apr 25 20098:32 am EDT -
Stressful Enough
Apr 24 20092:29 pm EDT -
Not Regretting the Pound
Apr 24 20091:09 pm EDT -
Introducing the New Ford Squeeze
Apr 24 20099:47 am EDT
Links
- Felix Salmon

- DealBreaker

- Ryan Avent: The Bellows

- The Epicurean Dealmaker

- Chris Anderson

- Ultimi Barbarorum

- MarketBeat

- Michelle Leder

- John Quiggin

- The Panelist

- Andrew Leonard

- Streetsblog

- Brad Setser

- Michael Mandel

- Financial Crookery

- Kash Mansori

- Dean Baker

- Calculated Risk

- Free Exchange

- Curbed

- Lance Knobel

- Econospeak

- Carbon Tax Center

- Overcoming Bias

- Mark Thoma

- Naked Capitalism

- Alphaville

- Barry Ritholtz

- Alexander Campbell

- The Bayesian Heresy

- Brad DeLong

- DealBook

- Greg Mankiw

- Deal Journal

- FP Passport

- Carl Bialik

- Marginal Revolution

- A Fistful of Euros

- Dan Gross

Profiting From Illiquidity
Nancy Trejos of the Washington Post reports that the spread between conforming and non-conforming mortgages has now gapped out to 75bp, from 20bp in mid-July. Tyler Cowen says in response that
If you think this is only a liquidity event, there is of course a profit opportunity.
I'm not entirely sure how Tyler expects me to proft from this spread. Can I buy an RMBS of non-conforming jumbo mortgages while going short a Fannie Mae bond with a similar duration? That would imply that non-conforming jumbo RMBS are trading at levels equivalent to where new jumbo mortgages are being priced, which is not necessarily the case. A lot of the rise in mortgage rates is an attempt to scare borrowers into not borrowing at all, and we saw with Bear Stearns that primary-market rates can be well wide of secondary-market rates.
More generally, you need liquidity to profit from a liquidity event. If illiquid paper plunges in price, you can buy it up (with cash), hold it to maturity, and make a tidy sum. But where's that cash going to come from? That's the question.






