Recent Blog Posts
-
The $4.5 Billion Dollar Bank Run
Nov 07 201111:20 am EDT -
The Times' Rorshach Geithner Story
Apr 27 20099:26 am EDT -
Sinking Animal Spirits
Apr 27 20098:45 am EDT -
Counter-cyclical Urban Policy
Apr 26 200910:00 am EDT -
Be Your Own Counterfeiter
Apr 26 20099:36 am EDT -
Being Tim Geithner
Apr 25 200912:37 pm EDT -
Notes From a Press Conference Naif
Apr 25 20099:41 am EDT -
What Good is the News?
Apr 25 20098:32 am EDT -
Stressful Enough
Apr 24 20092:29 pm EDT -
Not Regretting the Pound
Apr 24 20091:09 pm EDT
Links
- Felix Salmon

- DealBreaker

- Ryan Avent: The Bellows

- The Epicurean Dealmaker

- Chris Anderson

- Ultimi Barbarorum

- MarketBeat

- Michelle Leder

- John Quiggin

- The Panelist

- Andrew Leonard

- Streetsblog

- Brad Setser

- Michael Mandel

- Financial Crookery

- Kash Mansori

- Dean Baker

- Calculated Risk

- Free Exchange

- Curbed

- Lance Knobel

- Econospeak

- Carbon Tax Center

- Overcoming Bias

- Mark Thoma

- Naked Capitalism

- Alphaville

- Barry Ritholtz

- Alexander Campbell

- The Bayesian Heresy

- Brad DeLong

- DealBook

- Greg Mankiw

- Deal Journal

- FP Passport

- Carl Bialik

- Marginal Revolution

- A Fistful of Euros

- Dan Gross

Profiting From Illiquidity
Nancy Trejos of the Washington Post reports that the spread between conforming and non-conforming mortgages has now gapped out to 75bp, from 20bp in mid-July. Tyler Cowen says in response that
If you think this is only a liquidity event, there is of course a profit opportunity.
I'm not entirely sure how Tyler expects me to proft from this spread. Can I buy an RMBS of non-conforming jumbo mortgages while going short a Fannie Mae bond with a similar duration? That would imply that non-conforming jumbo RMBS are trading at levels equivalent to where new jumbo mortgages are being priced, which is not necessarily the case. A lot of the rise in mortgage rates is an attempt to scare borrowers into not borrowing at all, and we saw with Bear Stearns that primary-market rates can be well wide of secondary-market rates.
More generally, you need liquidity to profit from a liquidity event. If illiquid paper plunges in price, you can buy it up (with cash), hold it to maturity, and make a tidy sum. But where's that cash going to come from? That's the question.
Comments
If you are commenting using a Facebook account, your profile information may be displayed with your comment depending on your privacy settings. By leaving the 'Post to Facebook' box selected, your comment will be published to your Facebook profile in addition to the space below.




