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Supply and Demand in the Cocaine Ind...   How Derivatives Traders Can Also Be ...
Jun 7 2007 1:09PM EDT

The NAR Turns Bearish on Housing

With David Lereah gone, it seems that the National Association of Realtors is becoming more bearish in its forecasts (if not its spin). Joe Weisenthal thinks that the NAR's capitulation to reality is likely a bullish indicator, but I'm not quite that sanguine: I think it's more a desperate attempt to reclaim some modicum of credibility, although the likes of Dean Baker will never trust the NAR, no matter what they say.

Personally, I don't believe any forecasts at all, whether they're bullish or bearish. Niether the NAR nor anybody else has any privileged information about what house prices are going to do over the next year or two – all of this is no more than glorified guesswork, and should really be treated as such.

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