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The Times' Rorshach Geithner Story
Apr 27 20099:04am EDT -
Sinking Animal Spirits
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Counter-cyclical Urban Policy
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Be Your Own Counterfeiter
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Being Tim Geithner
Apr 25 200912:04pm EDT -
Notes From a Press Conference Naif
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What Good is the News?
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Stressful Enough
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Not Regretting the Pound
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Introducing the New Ford Squeeze
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Non-Economic Questions of the Day
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The Stress Test Blind Alley
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Happy Hour
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Recovery Without Rebalancing
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The Shape of Your Recession
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The End of Harry Potter
The market is pricing in Harry Potter's death. I have only the vaguest knowledge of the Harry Potter books, but I do have a certain amount of faith in markets. Therefore, I believe that Harry Potter will indeed be killed off in the final book of the series.
I'm not quite sure if my belief is justified or not. While it's possible that the bookies were receiving bets from people with inside information, I think it's more likely that most of the bets were simply from fans of the series, who can only guess whether or not Harry will die. Can the sum total of ignorance be reasonably reliable? Yes, I think. But we will find out for sure on July 21, should we be so inclined.
(Via Cowen)






