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The End Of Harry Potter

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Jun 04 2007 12:00am EDT

The End of Harry Potter

The market is pricing in Harry Potter's death. I have only the vaguest knowledge of the Harry Potter books, but I do have a certain amount of faith in markets. Therefore, I believe that Harry Potter will indeed be killed off in the final book of the series.

I'm not quite sure if my belief is justified or not. While it's possible that the bookies were receiving bets from people with inside information, I think it's more likely that most of the bets were simply from fans of the series, who can only guess whether or not Harry will die. Can the sum total of ignorance be reasonably reliable? Yes, I think. But we will find out for sure on July 21, should we be so inclined.

(Via Cowen)

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