Abbott, Teva Emerge as Winners After Patents Expire

Expiring patents are reshaping the big-pharma landscape and the emerging winners are Abbott Laboratories and generic drug maker Teva Pharmaceutical Industries.

A knock on suburban Chicago-based Abbott's pharmaceutical business is it's a one-trick pony, milking the wonder drug Humira for as many uses as possible while company scientists struggle to come up with promising new products.

Well, CEO Miles White may have the last laugh as his blockbuster Humira is predicted to be the world's best-selling drug in the next several years, raking in more than $10 billion by 2016, British research group EvaluatePharma says. At the very least, Abbott is a more attractive takeover candidate.

White snagged the rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira in 2001 as part of Abbott's acquisition of BASF's pharma business. The drug is approved for five other conditions, including Chron's disease. The 2016 estimate for Humira projects the drug's sales will almost double from the $5.5 billion last year. Abbott predicts 20 percent sales growth for Humira this year.

Humira is dethroning Lipitor. Pfizer Inc.'s cholesterol medicine loses patent protection next year opening it up to generic competition. That means the current top-selling branded medicine will lose a substantial amount of sales.

Pfizer will remain the top company for overall drug revenue, while Israeli generics maker is slipping into the top 10, according to EvaluatePharma. The British group projects Pfizer sales to be $47.1 billion in 2016 (a 2 percent decline) as Teva's sales rise 7 percent to $20.8 billion.

Teva's presence in a top 10 list illustrates the trend in the drug industry: the major players are all seeing patents expire on blockbusters and they don't have enough newer products to replace the lost sales.

After Humira, the other top-selling drugs, according to EvaluatePharma, will be Roche Holdings' cancer drug Avastin, Amgen Inc.'s rheumatoid arthritis treatment Enbrel, Roche and Biogen Idec Inc.'s cancer drug Rituxan and AstraZeneca Plc's cholesterol pill Crestor.