BizJournals Portfolio
Dec 07 2009 7:31pm EDT

Swine Flu Deaths May Be Lower Than Expected

As swine flu begins to wane, researchers are starting to get a grasp of the virus' magnitude this season and it's a lot less severe than originally forecast.

The current wave of swine flu in the U.S. will result in a death toll only slightly higher or even lower than that caused by seasonal influenza in a typical year, according to research published in the journal PLoS Medicine. The government-backed researchers looked at flu cases in Milwaukee and New York from last spring to make projections.

An average of 36,000 people die from influenza-related causes every year in the U.S., the researchers say. Under one scenario, the U.S. death rate from swine flu could be as low as 7,800 to 29,000 deaths. However, children up to 4 years old were among those affected the most by the disease and a lull in the virus' spread could be temporary, the scientists warn. The flu could return in January.

That's not to say some companies didn't make some money off the flu. Big drug companies produced millions of shots, while drug-store chains saw sales stoked by cold and flu medicines, hand sanitizer and clinical services.

European drug makers AstraZeneca Plc, Novartis AG, Sanofi-Aventis SA, GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Australia's CSL Ltd. sold 250 doses of swine flu vaccine to the U.S. government, and worldwide sales of shots helped boost sales for these companies.

Meanwhile, Walgreen Co. and CVS Caremark Corp. sold more cold and flu medicines, hand sanitizer as they administered vaccines in their stores in hopes of showing off their clinical services.


Brett Chase covers health care for Portfolio.com and writes the blog Heavy Doses.

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