Rise of the Euro, Rise of the Europeans

Alexandra Peers writes: September in the art world often begins groggily, as participants shake off a kind of industry-wide jet lag.

So the level of attention and attendance that this week's very minor auctions of contemporary art received--sales usually confined to dealers bidding for inventory by phone--was striking. In a busy sale yesterday at Sotheby's, four out of five paintings sold (a respectable percentage), for a total of $13.1 million, above the high estimate. But in terms of predictive value, messages were mixed: the sale raised more money than it did a year ago, but a lower proportion of its works sold than is common at blowouts of cutting-edge contemporary art.

One red flag: About half the top "lots" went to Europeans, indicating currency continues to be a big factor in the market. Indeed, the dollar's weakness could make a huge slate of keenly watched London auctions in October a success no matter what's going on in the American economy (and thus they'll be a unreliable indicator for how the much larger November ones will fare in New York).

Since the buying nations set the taste of the market, that means rising prices for European artists--probably Germans--at the expense of U.S. painters. Proof that European artists will be the flavor of the fall: Powerhouse collector Jennifer Rubell, at dealer who attended Marion Goodman's dinner at the Four Seasons restaurant in New York Monday, said the Rubell Family Collection in Miami will open a show dubbed "Euro Centric" next month during Art Miami Basel.