Mother Nature Changes the Nature of Fashion Sales

The New York Times reports that a climatologist from Columbia University is now part of the Liz Claiborne team contributing predictions to better time the shipments of seasonal garments to retailers. Target has had a weather team since 2004. Fashion companies and department stores have used weather forecasts to help in their planning for years. But with the weather becoming more unpredictable, these jobs are becoming more important. Fashion Lawyer recently did a post on one of the companies working in this field, Planalytics.

Weatherproof has bought an insurance policy that can pay out as much as $10 million if daily temperatures in New York City are warmer than the historical average for December, 37 degrees. Fredric Stollmack, the president of Weatherproof, said it's a policy they never hope to use but it was there just in case.

"I have been in this industry for 40 years, and during that time, we always knew it got cold in December and stayed that way through January and February -- and that was that," he said. "Now, it's a crap shoot."

Or worse. On their most recent conference call, Ralph Lauren's COO Roger Farah said the weather has changed fall from the largest and most profitable delivery cycle to the shortest.

"What has turned into the shortest selling cycle of the year now has become fall. We ship it in July and August and hopefully it solidifies September and by October, you want to start moving out of it to make room for Holiday Cruise and Resort, which is now coming into the stores in the first week and two weeks of November. So, it used to be the largest and most profitable delivery cycle for really all manufacturers, it has now become the shortest.

The so-called fast fashion companies have an advantage when it comes to planning for the seasons. Take Zara. Not only do they control when their clothes hit the floor but, because they also own their own factories and fabric mills, they can control when they're made and when they're shipped. Do you remember the summer of 2003? The executives at Zara do. In August temperatures reached over 38, setting UK records. Weather in Europe was even hotter. No surprise then that as fall coats were arriving at stores, shoppers across Europe were looking for the lightest t-shirts and blouses they could find. According to Rebecca McClellan, a retail analyst for Exane BNP Paribas, by mid-September, Zara sales had slipped 9 percent. In November it was still warm and Zara executives decided to hold back the next shipments of warm weather clothes. By the end of November, they just turned the machines off and stopped making coats. That's not so easy for a smaller designer brand which must buy all its fabrics a year ahead of time. Lorraine Alba, the former sales director for Roland Mouret once told me , "We cut to order, unlike many of the big brands. We do not sit on pre-ordered fabric." In other words, if the stores decide in October that they need more of Roland's winter coats--tough luck. Even if they wanted to make more, they'd be unable to get the fabric they need from their suppliers.

So what do the niche luxury labels do? Worry about it less. The true fashionista will buy the it coat in August no matter what the climate because she doesn't want to miss out on getting it. And, Neil Prosser, the owner of Flannels designer stores in the UK told me, "we are definitely weather sensitive, but not in the way one might think. If it's cold, people still buy for their holidays--and often our customer buys more, because people go away more if the weather is bad." Plus fashionistas have other ways of fighting back against mother nature. Layers. Christopher Bailey, the designer at Burberry, once told me "the fabrics are so much more sophisticated. Leathers can be breathable, for instance. We see a lot more summer fabrics being worn in winter -- things like chiffons and silk georgettes. They can be layered as a way of building a wardrobe. No one is looking for big heavy clothes anymore."

Layers, Layers, Layers! How genius. Instead of one $1,000 coat, you now need a $400, silk turtleneck, a $750 cashmere cardigan and a $900 lightweight trench. Layers fall second only to "lather, rinse, repeat" in the ranks of pure marketing genius. Thank you mother nature.

Related: Ralph Lauren's weather blues.