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Oct 2 2007 10:58AM EDT

The Luxury Life: A Bubble Or A Trend

At least one investor I know thinks that there is no luxury bubble to burst. That the valuations and growth projections we are seeing will continue unabated despite changes in the global economy. I disagree. I think that the boom -- even though it has been a long one -- is fueled in part middle class people trading up and when they get hit by higher interest rates, they'll stop shopping at the luxe level.

What might be the first tangible bit of evidence of a luxury slowdown came from the New York Post yesterday. They reported that U.S. department stores told Gucci, Hugo Boss, Versace and Giorgio Armani to hold back part of the winter shipments. Orders haven't been cancelled outright, according to the Post, but put on hold until weeks before the Christmas.

One analyst I spoke to said the list of brands first hit didn't surprise her -- they're the ones with household name status in the middle market. Bottega Veneta and Prada for instance, have a customer less likely to be hurt by interest rates or a mortgage crunch.

But is it true? None of the houses named were available for definitive comment because of the shows. Luckily, I'll be at the shows again tomorrow. And now I have something to talk about.

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