Recent Blog Posts
-
Santorum Suspends Presidential Campaign
Apr 10 20123:28 pm EDT -
Obama Doubles Down on Clean Energy
Mar 07 20124:51 pm EDT -
Say It Ain’t Snowe
Feb 28 20126:36 pm EDT -
Caution Flag Out for Republicans
Feb 27 20121:59 pm EDT -
How Santorum and Gingrich Could Deny Romney
Feb 08 201212:36 pm EDT -
Obama Embraces Super PAC
Feb 07 201210:30 am EDT -
Romney Trumps Gingrich
Feb 02 20124:11 pm EDT -
Romney Flush After Florida
Feb 01 20124:09 pm EDT -
Newt Gingrich's Space Oddity
Jan 27 20121:04 pm EDT -
Small-Business Voters Up for Grabs
Jan 25 20124:24 pm EDT
How Santorum and Gingrich Could Deny Romney
Rick Santorum’s sweep of yesterday’s Republican presidential contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri led some pundits to declare he has displaced Newt Gingrich as conservatives’ best hope to stop Mitt Romney from winning the nomination.
Maybe. We’ll see. It’s still hard to imagine Santorum sweeping the South, something that somebody other than Romney needs to do in order to stop Romney’s methodical march toward amassing the delegates needed to win. It’s more conceivable to see Gingrich—providing he gets his mojo back—winning a bunch of Southern states.
Likewise, Santorum’s blue-collar Pennsylvania roots make him a better candidate than Gingrich in the Rust Belt.
So here’s some unsolicited advice for Santorum and Gingrich that's based on what works in the business world (as long as the Federal Trade Commission or the Justice Department doesn’t get wind of it):
Get together and divide the remaining states between you. Agree not to compete in each other’s territories—a concept known as geographic market allocation. It’s considered to be an anticompetitive business practice, one that will bring down the wrath of antitrust regulators.
But politics ain’t beanbag, and antitrust law doesn’t apply. If Santorum and Gingrich each want to win enough delegates to deny Romney the nomination, here’s one way to do it:
Santorum should make a minimal effort in these states and hope Gingrich wins most of the 604 delegates up for grabs here: Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee (March 6); Alabama and Mississippi (March 13); Louisiana (March 24); Texas (April 3); North Carolina (May 8); and Arkansas and Kentucky (May 22).
Gingrich should do the same in these states and hope Santorum wins most of the 698 delegates up for grabs here: Michigan (February 28); North Dakota and Ohio (March 6); Missouri (March 17 caucus; last night was a nonbinding primary); Illinois (March 20); Maryland and Wisconsin (April 3); Delaware, New York, and Pennsylvania (Aril 24); Indiana and West Virginia (May 8); Nebraska (May 15); and New Jersey and South Dakota (June 5).
It takes 1,144 delegates to win the nomination, so this strategy wouldn’t give either Santorum or Gingrich enough delegates to win. But it would prevent Romney from winning.
Then we’d have an old-fashioned brokered convention, something longed for by political junkies and journalists. Who knows who would emerge as the nominee? The convention is being held in Tampa, so maybe former Florida Governor Jeb Bush could drop by and offer his services
Kent Hoover is the Washington bureau chief for bizjournals.
Comments
If you are commenting using a Facebook account, your profile information may be displayed with your comment depending on your privacy settings. By leaving the 'Post to Facebook' box selected, your comment will be published to your Facebook profile in addition to the space below.





