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Is It Morning in America?
Is it morning in America? A fresh round of economic reports from the U.S., Australia and China convinces investors that the dawn is breaking and pushes stocks higher. Here's a look at today's vital statistics:
Growth in China—Stronger than expected. China's purchasing manager's index rose to 51.7 from 51.2, beating expectations.
Growth in Australia—Stronger than expected. The GDP in Australia expanded at a rate of 1.2 percent during the second quarter, the fastest pace in three years.
U.S. manufacturing—Stronger than expected. According to Reuters: "The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 56.3 from 55.5 in July. That was above financial market expectations for 53.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector."
U.S. jobs—Well, nothing is perfect. ADP, the payroll services company, said its index shows private employers unexpectedly cut 10,000 jobs in August.
Auto sales—Surprisingly bad. GM reports that sales for August tumbled 25 percent because of the high unemployment rate. See above.
U.S. stocks—They are soaring. Major stock indexes in the U.S. are up about 2.5 percent on the news. The S&P 500 is up 25.92 points, or 2.47 percent, to 1,075.25.
Odds of another Fed stimulus for the economy—They just went down.
Odds of a double-dip recession—Lower. Recently, economists such as Nouriel Roubini have put the odds at about 40 percent or so. Today, "Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia calls the ISM report "a shocker." He tells MarketWatch News Break the odds of a double dip recession are now one in twenty."
Odds that the economy will sink the Democrats in November—Maybe a bit lower.
Steve Rosenbush is the blogs/industry editor for Portfolio.com.
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