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Apr 19 2010 5:14pm EDT

Five Stages of Greek Debt Grief

It has been fascinating to watch investors and public officials come to terms with the all-but inevitable prospect that Greece will default on its debt at some point in the future, which continued to drive down stock prices on Monday. The process has been reminiscent of the five stages of grief that Swiss psychiatrist Elizabeth Kübler-Ross outlined in her 1969 classic On Death and Dying.

Here's a look back at the process as it has unfolded since last winter:

Denial—European officials began working through their angst over the Greek sovereign credit crisis by denying that it existed. "EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said policymakers have no “plan B” to help Greece. “Greece will not default. In the euro area, default does not exist,” he said on January 30.

Anger—By mid-February, it was increasingly obvious that the Greek debt crisis was not going to solve itself—and German anger mounted. A survey by the Bild newspaper showed that two thirds of Germans opposed an EU bailout of Greece, and that 53 percent believed that Greece should be expelled from the EU.

Bargaining—In March, cold, hard reality set in. Greece was going to need an EU bailout, and EU leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel came to an agreement for the first time over its necessity. But Merkel was careful to point out that the bailout funds would be drawn down "only as a last resort." And Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president, insisted that the aid announcement was simply "a political text giving a political signal."

Depression—The value of the German bund sinks relative to the value of U.S. Treasury bonds, as it becomes increasingly clear that German workers are going to fund the bailout for Greek workers who refuse to pick up the tab for their own government's wild spending spree.

Acceptance—On April 11, EU leaders, including die-hard opponent German Chancellor Angela Merkel, agree to bail out Greece with 30 billion euros in below-market-rate loans.


Steve Rosenbush is the blogs/industry editor for Portfolio.com.

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