BizJournals Portfolio
Feb 03 2010 4:12pm EDT

Odds Are In: Cars, Beer, and Women Will Dominate Super Bowl Ads. Again.

Super Bowl advertising creates almost as much excitement as the game itself. With 30-second spots selling for $2.5 million to $3 million, companies go to incredible lengths to produce entertaining commercials that justify the huge investment.

The New Orleans Saints are the underdogs in this Sunday's matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. But which ads are likely to be the highest rated? This won't exactly come as a shock, but Anheuser Busch, the brewer of Bud, is most likely to be the top-rated ad. It has a 10 percent chance of winning, according to Bookmaker.com.

It won't have any competition from other brewers because it has locked up rights as the exclusive provider of television-based beer marketing to the masses for the duration of the game, which will be broadcast on CBS. Rival MillerCoors is gearing up for a big campaign during the pregame show, though. It will feature four small businesses in its ads. That's a creative angle, but Anheuser Busch prefers to stick with its tested formula of glitzy ads during the big game.

Levi's and Coca-Cola are rated No. 2 with a 9 percent chance. The Coca-Cola ad will feature The Simpsons.

GoDaddy.com, the Web hosting service that has blazed a pioneering trail in marketing by featuring scantily clad women, is also expected to be among the most highly rated spots this year, with a 7 percent chance of being No. 1.

Car ads will be well-represented, with spots from Volkswagen, Hyundai, Honda, and Dodge, but they are expected to finish in the middle of the pack. The odds are against a breakout win: just 5 percent for any one of the automakers.

The sleeper in the group could well be the Focus on the Family ad featuring Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow. The fact that it has been attacked for its apparent pro-life message doesn't seem to have hurt. It's chance of being the most popular Super Bowl ad is the same Chrysler's Dodge brand.

Don't expect any miracles from the U.S. Census Bureau, though. It has produced an ad featuring actor Ed Begley Jr., which has the longest odds of being the top-rated spot at just 4 percent.


Steve Rosenbush is the blogs/industry editor for Portfolio.com.

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